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variety. Associated with this new variety are a series of subjective expectations

-- average output, ON, which is higher than the traditional variety, but a vari-

ance, 7 which is considerably larger than when cultivating the traditional.

If the farmer's subjective expected negative standard deviation is below the Sms,

the farmer will resist the adoption. It should be emphasized that may

well be wider than the real variance in actual practice as determined on the

experiment station or in trials on farmers' fields. This will be especially true

during the early stages of adoption when there is a lesser degree of certainty
 1/
regarding expected yields as seen by the potentially innovative farmer. The

larger the number of farmers in his neighborhood who have tried the new variety

the closer the farmer's subjective variance will be to the real variance. Even

in those cases where the two variances have converged but the negative standard

deviation lies below the particular Sms of the farmer, he is likely to resist.

These are the cases usually referred to as a technological innovation which offers

limited gains -- insufficient to encourage adoption.

 If on the other hand,the one:negative deviation, lies above the Sms with an

average output higher than the past output with traditional varieties, the farmer

is far more likely to adopt despite the wider variance which may attach to the

new practice (Figure 3). Under these circumstances, adoption is likely to pro-

ceed rapidly. As we shall see later, when the negative standard deviation is

above the traditional average output, then adoption will proceed very rapidly

indeed. (These are the cases which are usually referred to as situations of

dramatic output increase possibilities.)


1/ Besides the dearth of information of the basis of which to formulate his
expectations regarding yield and its variance, the farmer recognizes that there
is a greater likelihood of his performance being subject to wider error during
the early stages of adoption due to unfamiliarity with the variety, its re-
quirements, and the changed practices which may be required by the new technology
in order to realize its potential.