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previous and the most immediate years helps him in formulating the probabilities

to assign to numerical values for the current year, but they are inherently ex-

ternal to his personal control. The same applies to production and consumption

credit, both before the crop is planted, during the crop season and after harvest.

[Long, 1968b]

 Third, there is a product price variability. Choice of crop and crop com-

binations as well as intended levels of output are based upon price expectations
 1/
-- relative prices expected to obtain at harvest or time of product sale. The

actual price forthcoming is of course outside the control of the farmer (in the

usual textbook sense of an infinitely elastic demand curve or price being given).

The divergence between expected prices when crop choice and planting decisions

are made and actual prices may be considerable, both positively and negatively.

Free market forces, monopsony situations, government controls, price floors or

guarantees and similar factors may come into play. These calculations are further

complicated by seasonal, cyclical, trend or random forces.

 The critical element is that these three variabilities combine in any given

crop period to affect the net return to the farm family. The extent to which the

farmer can reduce unintended fluctuations in each category is quite limited, but

every effort is made to reduce those subject to his control. Historical know-

ledge on the past variabilities in each does exist and he takes these into account

whether it is distrust of assured government prices or a locust cycle.

 Under the usual conditions of traditional or subsistence agriculture, the

 farmer's knowledge of the average yields and their probability distribution is


 1/
 An interesting question is the extent to which the choice of crop and crop
 combinations may not be wholly price determined for the semi-subsistence low-
 income farmer who must first assure an adequate food supply for his family and
 who is reluctant to be dependent upon market forces. A few economists have
 argued that maximization in labor use and in farm family own farm inputs may be
 the primary goal in production in cases of subsistence agriculture [Wharton,
 1969, Ch. 141.