-4-


increases in yields and reductions in per unit cost which in:turn lead to

increases in quantities sold, and returns to the farmers. Dramatic and

significant changes in the technology available to farmers can also have

an important derivative effect upon their perceptions of opportunity and motiva-

tion to change in general.

 2. Changes in Infrastructure. / Major changes in infrastructure,

particularly irrigation, roads, storage, and other marketing facilities, can

often be of signal importance in effectuating dynamic changes in the agricultural

sector served. For example; irrigation which gives greater assurance of water

and improves its availability and distribution or which permits the most

effective utilization of other farm inputs can often lead to major sustained

change in agriculture. The two-way facilitation provided by roads and improved

transport can occasionally alter the input cost/product price ratios leading to

significant increases in output and yield. Similarly, their role in heightening

marketing efficiency and access to markets in general need not be belabored.

 3. Changes in Demand. Major shifts in the levels of effective demand

 for agricultural output have usually led to dramatic responses, even by the

 most traditional agriculture. At times, these dynamic changes have been

 caused by strong shifts in domestic demand due to increases in per capital

 income. (There is an important unexplored question here regarding the role

 of population on which views differ sharply.) At other times, these shifts have

 been the result of changes on the export side.

 4. Changes in "Prices" or the Terms of Trade. Major changes in the terms

 of trade between agriculture and non-agriculture leading to an increase in

 the real value of agricultural product can sometimes serve.as a major stimulus



 SThe term "infrastructure" is used here in the broader sense set out in my
 earlier work [Wharton, 1967].