suggests that 91% of Virgin Islanders surveyed feel that it is "im- portant" or "very important" for government to exert efforts to expand agriculture (Mills, 1979), and the conclusion by the Department of Agriculture that very few young people are cur- rently involved in, or entering, farm production (1979). It iden- tified the obstacles in the path of new farmers to be the unavailability of land, inadequate capital, and lack of technological assistance. Padda (1979) also singled out the lack of trained personnel, a shortage of labor, inadequate supplies of water and insufficient marketing facilities as factors that inhibit the development of agriculture and which contribute to its decline. Still, the moribund state of agriculture in the territory cannot be attributed to a lack of effort on the government's behalf as the following evidence indicates. Existing policy includes the following initiatives taken by government: 1. A sorghum production subsidy in the form of a direct pay- ment of $40.00 per acre to farmers who cultivate land in sorghum; 2. A 95% exemption from real property taxes for land of- ficially certified in use for agriculture; 3. A 90% reduction of tax on income derived from agriculture to any applicant who is certified; 4. The provision of a number of direct services to small farms (like land preparation, fertilizer, seeds, and slips); 5. The enforcement of zoning and building regulations to minimize the relentless pressure from residential and com- mercial encroachment (Mills, 1983); and 6. The acquisition of land primarily for farming purposes, such as the purchase of the Harvland property for $6.4 million. In the final analysis, it is patently obvious that, given the over- whelming priority accorded to tourism in the local economy, agriculture in general will never be able to compete as a viable enterprise in the market place in the foreseeable future. Yet this is not to be considered an endorsement of a dirge over agriculture. On the contrary, it is to emphasize that it would be misleading to treat agriculture solely as a business in the market economy. The severely limited land resource dictates that even at the cost of heavy subsidization by both the local government and federal farm pro- grams, agrarian land should be protected from further encroach- ment by nonfarm uses. The simple view is that land devoted to agriculture is a far more desirable use than the several other com- peting uses with their potential for closing off the "commons," introducing visual blight, or despoiling the environment. The frustration of agricultural officials is clear evidence that the existing package of tax incentives, subsidized in-kind services, and input prices are quite inadequate to stave off the continual infringement on agrarian land. It appears that nothing short of a full and conscious policy commitment by the highest levels of government, expressed in deeds and not political rhetoric, re- garding the role that agriculture is to perform in the future economy of the Virgin Islands, will arrest the persistent slide that will make agriculture, by the year 2000, a thing of the past. For it is worth repeating that once agricultural land is committed to an alternative use, it is extremely unlikely that it will ever be re- turned to the productive agricultural domain. References 1. Bartholomew, D.J. 1982. Stochastic models for social processes. (3rd ed.). New York: John Wiley & Sons. 2. Blalock,Jr., H.M. 1979. Social statistics. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co. 3. Blaut,J.M., F.X. Mark, and A.E. Dammann. 1965. Report to the Governor of the United States Virgin Islands on the reconstruction of the agriculture economy of St. Croix. Virgin Islands: College of the Virgin Islands, Caribbean Research In- stitute. 4. Collins, L. 1975. An introduction to the Markov chain analysis. Norwich: University of East Anglia, Geo Abstracts, Ltd. 5. Collins, L., R. Drewett, and R. Fergfuson. 1974. Markov models in geography. The Statistician 23(3/4):179-209. 6. Dovring, F. 1962. Farm size data: Frequency distribution, interpolation, and projection. (Res. Rep. No. AERR-50): Illinois: Agricultural Experimental Sta- tion, University of Illinois College of Agriculture. 7. Economic Policy Council. 1979. Economic policy guidelines: Vol. 2, Background narrative. Virgin Islands: Department of Commerce. 8. Judge, G.G., and E.R. Swanson. 1961. Markov chains: Basic concepts and suggested uses in agricultural economics. (Res. Rep. No. AERR-49): Illinois: Agricultural Experimental Station, University of Illinois College of Agriculture. 9. Kemeny, J.G., A. Schleifer, Jr., J.L. Snell, and G.L. Thompson. 1962. Finite mathematics with business applications. NewJersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc. 10. Kemeny, J.C., and J.L. Snell. 1976. Finite Markov chains. New York: Springer-Verlag. 11. Krenz, R.D. 1964. Projection of farm numbers for North Dakota with Markov chains. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research 16(3):77-83. 12. Miller, R.W. 1979. The Virgin Islands Economy. Washington, DC: Office of Territorial Affairs, Department of the Interior. 13. McElroy, J.L. Agricultural policy in a scarce and fragile environment. In: D.S. Padda (Ed.), 9th Annual Agriculture and Food Fair of the Virgin Islands, 1979, pp. 17-20. Virgin Islands: V.I. Department of Agriculture and College of the Virgin Islands Cooperative Extension Service. 14. Mills, F.L. 1979. Public evidence for a vigorous agricultural program. In: D.S. Padda (Ed.), 9th Annual Agriculture and Food Fair of the Virgin Islands, 1979, pp. 9-11. Virgin Islands: V.I. Department of Agriculture and College of the Virgin Islands Cooperative Extension Service. 15. Mills, F.L. 1983 (May). Land-use change in a microstate: The case of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Paper presented at the meeting of the Caribbean Studies Association, Santo Dominigo, Dominican Republic. 16. Padda, D.S. 1979. Developing a viable agriculture industry in the U.S. Virgin Islands. In: D.S. Padda (Ed.) 9th Annual Agriculture and Food Fair of the Virgin Islands, 1979, pp. 24-16. Virgin Islands: Department of Agriculture and Col- lege of the Virgin Islands Cooperative Extension Service. 17. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1961. U.S. Census of Agriculture: 1959. 1(54), Virgin Islands. Washington, DC: U.S. Govt. Printing Office. 18. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1966. Census of Agriculture: 1966. 1(53), Virgin Islands. Washington, DC: U.S. Govt. Printing Office. 19. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1972. 1969 Census of Agriculture: 1(53), Virgin Islands. Washington, DC: U.S. Govt. Printing Office. 20. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1977. 1974 Census of Agriculture: 1(54), Virgin Islands of the United States. Washington, DC: U.S. Govt. Printing Office. 21. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1980. 1978 Census of Agriculture: 1(54), Virgin Islands of the United States. Washington, DC: U.S. Govt. Printing Office. 22. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1983. 1982 Census of Agriculture: 1(54), Geographic Area Series, Virgin Islands. Washington, DC: U.S. Govt. Printing Of- fice. 23. Virgin Islands Planning Office. 1977. Land use and housing elements: U.S. Virgin Islands. V.I.: Office of the Governor. VOL. XX-PROCEEDINGS of the CARIBBEAN FOOD CROPS SOCIETY 29