numbers coincided over these same years. For example, according
to Table 6, the average annual loss of farms for a combined group
of seven fruit/nut classes was 8.3 farms per year between 1960-64
and 13.2 between 1964-70. The average losses per year for a
selected set of six livestock classes was 8.4 and 11.8 farms respec-
tively. Finally, this same pattern is reflected in the aggregate data.
To illustrate, the average loss of farms for the Territory was 8.8
farms per year between 1960-64 and a striking 42.3 between
1964-70. For St. Croix, the comparative figures were 6.0 and 24.8
respectively for the two periods. For St. Thomas and St. John,
the figures were 1.5 and approximately 8.0 respectively.

 Concerning the second proposition -- that rural deterioration
can be reversed given the possibility of economic stagnation in
the export sectors plus excessive unemployment and inflation
such as that experienced in the Virgin Islands during the 1970s, it
does not seem unreasonable to expect the kinds of increases in
farm activity recorded above. These include relatively rapid in-
creases in agricultural effort and output since 1970 with above-
average growth in livestock and field crops, more modest gains


in fruits and nuts, and some acreage decreases noted in vegetable
production. It is no mystery that these gains, remarkable in the
context of historical declines, took place during the recession-
ridden 1970s, a period characterized by very marginal growth in
tourism until 1978 and a plateau in manufacturing activity reached
in the early years of the decade.

 There are other telling signals, however, hinting indirectly
that the recent agricultural renaissance depicted in these buoyant
trends may be more fragile than the figures indicate. Two pre-
viously discussed factors which are obviously related include:
(1) the increasing percentage of farm operators spending 200 or
more days per year in off-farm work; and (2) the growing per-
centage of farms producing exclusively for home consumption.
Third, the average age of farm operators has essentially held con-
stant at 54 years throughout this century. This suggests that, on
the whole, the rural sector is as yet unable to demonstrate suf-
ficient dynamism to attract new young entrants. Fourth, average
farm size has noticeably decreased from 85-90 acres per farm in the
decades before 1970 to 64.5 acres in 1978.


TABLE 6


AVERAGE ANNUAL LOSSES IN THE NUMBER OF FARMS FOR
 SELECTED FRUITS/NUTS AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS
 FOR THE 1960-64 AND 1964-70 PERIODS


Avocados
Bananas
Limes/Lemons
Coconuts
Mangoes
Oranges
Pineapples
 Fruits/Nuts Average

Cattle
Hogs
Sheep
Goats
Chickens
Other Poultry
 Livestock Average


Source: Computed from Tables 4 and 5.


1960-64
 10.8
 4.8
 14.0
 '7.8
 14.3
 2.5
 4.3
 8.3

 12.3
 6.3
 0.0
 4.0
 23.5
 4.3
 8.4


1964-70
 17.0
 13.5
 16.5
 15.5
 16.3
 9.3
 4.2
 13.2

 9.3
 16.3
 10.3
 13.8
 17.3
 4.0
 11.8


 IN MEMORY OF
 BETTY M. RYAN
 OF

The Party


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