The 1978 levels in all cases except horses/mules were approxi-
mately double the 1970 levels. Likewise, production trends gener-
ally followed the same cycle. As a typical example, the number of
cattle on farms declined from 11,342 in 1950 to 5,645 in 1970,
and then rose above 6,000 by 1978. Most of the increases in
production between 1970-78 were uncharacteristically large.
For example, the number of goats increased 115%, hogs and
chickens grew 108% and 98% respectively, while other poultry
(turkeys, ducks, geese) expanded over 500 percent. In fact, the
number of goats, hogs and other poultry achieved in 1978 sur-
passed previous levels as far back as the American Transfer in 1917
from Denmark. Such gains are very indicative of the overall
strength of the livestock recovery in recent years.

 In summary, this analysis of farm numbers and production


 figures for particular field crops, vegetables, fruits and nuts, and
 livestock broadly supports the basic encroachment thesis men-
 tioned at the outset, i.e., that tourism and manufacturing develop-
 ment in small island systems is usually associated with rapid
 agricultural retrenchment. Two additional corollaries follow:
 first, that rural declines are most dramatic during periods of most
 rapid economic diversification; and second, that continuing en-
 croachment is not inevitable.

 The first is confirmed by evidence previously cited (Table 1)
 of most intense acreage loss occurring during the 1964-70 tourism/
 manufacturing boom period. In addition, a cursory examination
 of Tables 4 and 5 demonstrates that for the most commercial and
 economically viable enterprises fruits/nuts and livestock --
 the most serious declines in farm effort as measured by farm


BLE 5


PATTERNS OF LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION, 1950-1978


Horses/Mules
 No. Farms
 Quantity
Cattle
 No. Farms
 Quantity
Hogs/Pigs
 No. Farms
 Quantity
Sheep/Lambs
 No. Farms
 Quantity
Goats/Kids
 No. Farms
 Quantity
Chickens
 No. Farms
 Quantity
Other Poultry*
 No. Farms
 Quantity


*Principally turkeys, ducks, and geese.


1950


 410
 1,075


 258
11,342


 239
 976


 159
 2,784


 311
 3,846


 455
10,067


 73
 665


1960


 144
 431


 118
 8,383


 184
 1,297


 93
 2,152


 187
 2,334


 277
17,598


 54
 698


1964


 95
 265


 103
 6,532


 159
 1,323


 93
 2,268


 171
 3,203


 183
33,409


 37
 587


1970


 39
 183


 53
 5,645


 61
 898


 31
 2,185


 88
 2,721


 79
15,859


 13
 161


1975


 47
 216


 88
 6,106


 114
 1,454


 64
 3,122


 149
 4,162


 142
56,434


 31
 696


1978


 44
 208


 119
6,126


 127
 1,866


 76
 2,631


 176
 5,849


 154
31,478


 37
 1,027


 COMPLIMENTS
 OF

HENNEMAN ICE COMPANY

 BLOCK ICE AND CUBES
 "Serving St. Croix Since 1954"

 29 COMPANY STREET
 RICHMOND, CHRISTIANSTED, ST. CROIX

 STelephone: 773-4140 or 773-1268


 COMPLIMENTS
 OF


HUGHES PHOTO SHOP


 BOX 7021,SUNNY ISLE, CHRISTIANSTED
 ST. CROIX, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, 00820

 TELEPHONE 773 7827