310


over 140 million long tons in 1975, with a sharp drop to 117.4 million in 1976 after the Suez Canal reopened.
 Does that roughly tie in?
 Mr. CGRAVEL. That is essentially -what my chart shows.
 Mr. LAXALT [continuing to read]:
 Clearly, more cargo is being carried in fewer and more specialized ships, but the notion that this trend is universal or will continue indefinitely, is not borne out by projections.
 This is the point I tried to raise in our earlier discussion:
 According to a 1974 Cornell University study, economies resulting from ship scale are striking only in the so-called bulk trades, and these more in oil tankers than in ore carriers.
 Mr. GRAVELJ. Then was the study made by Cornell University?
 Mr. LAXALT. 1974:
 Except in the case of supertankers that operate only between the deep-water ports of the Persian Gulf and offshore discharge points in Europe andl the United States, ships having a cargo capacity beyond 100,000 deadweight tons-65,000 is "Pan-Max"That is the most you can take through:
 Encounter such severe restrictions in port and loading facilities as to make their size uneconomical.
 Mr. GRAVEL. Could I interrupt?
 _r. LAXALT. Surely.
 Mr. GRzAVEL. If the analysis is based on a Cornell studcy ma-de in 197 4, why has there not been a dip in the line since 1974? We have all those figures for 3 years and that line is ma,,rchingr straig-ht ahead, regardless of what some aca demics may be saying. They are still building Ithem out there.
 There is an interestinifrdiference between academics and shipowners. Academics play with figures. The Ship owners have to take the money to the bank to pay the bankers. They sort of design thingsto make them work because if they do not have the money, they cannot pay the bankers. If the people the Senator is quoting are relying on a study done in 1974, we have figures for 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, and 1977 tbat show their statement is not very accurate.
 Mr. LAXALT. I know, but they are thinking in terms of long-term pro] ections.
 Mir. GRAVEL. But when does the prediction begin to take place? Three years, four years, five years? Z
 Very seriously, the Senator is standing up and saying he has a statement of some group he says is pretty reasonable, responsible. I ami willing to accept that. Hie is saying the data is based -upon a study. AX study is where people make projections, develop scenarios. They may have done that. All I am saying is their scenarios haye not been borne out by the f acts.
 All I am doing is standing here and giving some figures, and what the Senator f rom Nevada is trying to give me in response is a scenario that never came to pass.
 Mr. LAXALT. I submit to the Senator from Alaska, that this is a responsible group, they conducted a i esponsible analysis. I sbiall touch base with them. I amn certain they touched base With maritime operators and other people in the business.