PAGE 1 Quarterly Report ... --Office of Technology Assessment INFORMATION CENTER OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSEMENT ARCHIVES COPY DO NOT REMOVE FROM LIBRARY April 1-June 30, 1980 PAGE 3 I. II. TABLE OF CONTENTS Assessments in Progress ............ Financial and Personnel Highlights .. A. B. c. Appointments ....... Appropriations .... Financial Report ........ l 4 4 4 4 III. Services to the Congress. . . . 5 IV. v. A. Assessments and Reports Published. . . . . 5 l. 2. Title ............................ Requests for OTA Publications. 5 5 B. Communications with Congress. . . . . . 6 1. Testimony ............................ 2. Director's Congressional Appointments. 3. Responses to Congressional Inquiries.. .. 4. Briefing, Presentations, Workshops for Congressional Staff ............................................. s. Subjects of Interaction with Other Congressional Support Agencies ....................... External Activities. a a a a a a a 4 a I a 4 a a a a a a a 4 a a a a I a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a A. Director .. B. Staff .... Presentations .. Publications l. 2. 3. Other ......................................... c. Notable Press-Requested Interviews. ...................... 6 6 6 8 10 11 11 12 12 14 15 18 D. Brown Bag Seminar Series. . . . . . 18 Exhibits A. Publication Briefs B. Selected News Clips on OTA Publications and Activities PAGE 4 ASSESSMENTS IN PROGRESS, JULY 1980 ENERGY, MATERIALS, AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY DIVISION o Solar Power Satellite Systems -Analyses of key technical and social issues which could affect the possible future development of solar power satellites as a potential long term energy option. o Energy from Biological Processes Examines the major biomass fuel cycles in terms of their potential contribution, their costs and environmental benefits and problems. o Alternative Energy Futures -Describes and compares different energy futures and their effects on major issues cutting across society. o Global Energy Trends Analyzes the prospects for world petroleum supplies. and, starting with the Soviet Union, examines region by region the implications of those prospects for U.S. policy. o Synthetic Fuels for Transportation -Explains in detail the technology issues controlling future composition of, and market for, synthetic and conventional fuels for transportation. o Decentralized Electric Energy Generation Systems -Studies the economic and technical effects of decentralized electric energy systems on the operation of electric utilities. o Nuclear Powerplant Standardization Examines the feasibility of standardizing the design and manufacture of nuclear power plants to improve their safety and licensibility. o Development and Production Potential of Federal Coal Leases As mandated by the Federal Coal Leasing Amendments Act (Public Law 94-377), analyzes all outstanding Federal coal development rights, which includes 533 developed and undeveloped leases and 172 preference-right lease applications. o Competitiveness of U.S. Electronics Industry -Explores the factors that determine the competitiveness of the U.S. electronics industry vis-a-vis Japanese and Western European firms, including among the factors the effects of Federal policies. o U.S. Industrial Competitiveness: A Comparison of Steel. Electronics. and Automobiles -Evaluates three U.S. industries in terms of their international competitiveness as indicated by import penetration, productivity, and return on assets. o Technology and Soviet Energy Availability -Assesses Soviet energy prospects and the contribution that American, as opposed to other Western, equipment and technology might make to Soviet energy availability by 1990. o MX Missile Basing -Assesses the technical feasibility, strategic utility, cost, regional i:npacts, and future consequences of various multiple protective structure ICBM basing modes, and of selected alternative basing concepts. PAGE 5 -2HEALTH AND LIFE SCIENCES DIVISION o U.S. Food and Agricultural Research -Evaluates the U.S. agricultural research efforts and public policy options for making the most of our research potential. o Impact of Technology on Productivity of the Land -Explores the impacts of current and emerging technologies on the sustainability of croplands and rangelands as productive resources. o Technologies for Determining Cancer Risks from the Environment Examines the various estimates of cancer caused by the environment, the methods of identifying chemical carcinogens and to project human risk, and the elements involved in deciding that a carcinogen poses an unreasonable risk to human health. o Implications of Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Medical Technology Weighs the technical feasibility and usefulness as well as the social implications of applying cost-effectiveness analysis to medical technologies. o Evaluation of VA Agent Orange Protocol -As mandated by Public Law 96-151, reviews the Veterans' Administration epidemiologic studies regarding long term health effects of veterans exposed to dioxins in Viet Nam. o Strategies for Medical Technology Assessments Analyzes the appropriateness and validity of existing methods of assessing medical technologies with the intent of identifying alternative strategies of assessment. o Impacts of Applied Genetics -Studies the benefits, costs, and environmental, legal and ethical issues that arise from the introduction of nonhuman applications of genetic technologies in agriculture and industry. o Technology and World Population Looks at birth planning technologies and the factors affecting their development and use primarily in the Third World. SCIENCE, UTFOBMATION AND TRANSPORTATION DIVISION o Technology for Local Development Examines several prototype technologies that stress self-help and the use of renewable resources in community and regional development. o Technological Innovation and Regulations Weighs whether Federal regulatory policies encourage or discourage private innovation in the achievement of health, safety, environmental and economic goals. o Space Policy and Applications Examines alternative future national space policies and the important emerging space technology applications. o National Information Systems Explores the societal implications of three national information systems: (1) the National Crime Information Center (NCIC) of the FBI; (2) Future electronic message systems; and (3) electronic funds transfer. PAGE 6 -3-o Telecommunications Technology Reviews the entire technology base and structure of the telecommunications industry and sketches a range of future policy options and their likely implications. o Impacts of the 1979 World Administrative Radio Conference -Will assist Congress in determining the implications of the Final Acts, which are a treaty instrument setting forth a world-wide plan for use of the radio spectrum. o High-Level Radioactive Waste Management and Disposal Looks at the technologies for the safe disposal of commercial, high-level radioactive waste and evaluates a range of disposal strategies. o Freshwater Resources Management -Evaluates the wide range of computer models and predictive methods used to predict the work of water resource projects and regulations. o Ocean Research Technology -Identifies the most effective technologies and management systems in researching important ocean-related phenomena. o Advanced Air Transport Technology -Explores the impacts of introducing or not introducing second-generation SSTs into our commercial fleet (including financing and management alternatives) and the likely futures of low density (commuter)" air service and air cargo operations. o Automobile Fuel Efficiency -Considers and compares the relative costs and time needed to cut the consumption of petroleum in transportation by increasing automotive fuel economy and by substituting nonpetroleum fuels. o Airport and Air Traffic Control System -Studies the alternative technological and operational ways to improve the airports and air traffic control systems over the next 30 years and examines their respective impacts and policy alternatives. PAGE 7 -4II. FINANCIAL AND PERSONNEL HIGHLIGHTS A. Appointments Six OTA Fellows were selected for 1980-1981 from a highly qualified group of sixty-six applicants. The selected Fellows include two chemists, a patent lawyer, a biologist/ecologist, MD specializing in infectious diseases, and a science writer. B. Appropriations The Congress has passed and the President has signed our request for an FY 1980 supplemental appropriation of $199,000 to fund pay raises that were effective on October 7, 1979. Our total authorization for FY 1980 now stands at $11,199,000. House floor action on our FY 1981 Budget request provides $11,000,000. However, a proposed 2% recission would lower our authority to $10,780,000. We plan to submit our FY 1982 budget request to the Board shortly after Labor Day. C. Financial Report OTA obligated $2,027,000 during the Third Quarter. Year to date obligations equal $7,340,000; this amounts to 66% of our authorization for the year. The Third Quarter new contracting obligations were lower than projected due to staff commitments to finishing up existing projects. This will result in higher than projected Fourth Quarter obligations. Our estimate of travel costs for the year is lower than projected in February. Whereas we projected total expenditures of $300,000 to $330,000, we now anticipate expenditures of $275,000. Work on the first phase of the OTA Management Information System remains on schedule for implementation by October, 1980. This phase will provide a financial information system that should greatly aid the Director and operating managers in accounting for their resources 1110re accurately and quickly PAGE 8 -5-III, SERVICES TO THE CONGRESS A. Assessments and Reoorts Published 1. Title o Recent Developments in Ocean Thermal Energy -(Technical Memorandum} o Ocean Margin Drilling -(Technical Memorandum) o Impact of Inflation on the Federal R&D Investment -(Staff Paper} o Review of Methodologies for Nutrition Research -(Staff Paper) o Impact of Advanced Air Transport Technology, Part 1 Advanced High Speed Aircraft o Conservation and Solar Energy Programs of the DOE -A Critique o Forecasts of Physician Supply and Requirements o Taggants in Explosives o An Assessment of Oil Shale Technologies o Technology and Ste~l Industry Competitiveness o Revised Publication List o Revised Current Assessment Activities 2. Requests for OTA Publications 2,779 requests for OTA publications were received during the third quarter, Aprill through June 30, averaging 43.4/day, of which 14.6/day were from Congressional offices. These totals reflect requests for OTA publications after the initial distribution to Members of Congress, requesting Committee(s), the media, and advisor:y panels, reviewers, and goverIJl!l.ent agencies. The Supt. of Documents has indicated that OTA publications are selling exceptionally well and are among the top.Federai agency reports of interest to the public. PAGE 9 -6-B, Communications with Congress l, Testimony o Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, Subcommittee on Science, Technology and Space: S. 2015, Transportation Energy Efficiency Act o House Committee on Science and Technology: H.R. 7178, The R&D Authorization Estimates Act o House Committee on Science and Technology, jointly with House Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce and International Trade Subcommittee on the House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs: Technology and East-West Trade o Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment: Drugs in Animal Feed 2. Director's Congressional Appointments o The Honorable Edward J. Derwinski, Ranking Minority Member, House Committee on the Post Office and Civil Service o The Honorable Robert T. Stafford, Ranking Minority Member, Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works o The Honorable Robert Wilson, Ranking Minority Member, House Committee on Armed Services o The Honorable Donald H. Clausen, Ranking Minority Member, House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs o The Honorable J. William Stanton, Ranking Minority Member, House Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs o The Honorable Howard W. Cannon, Chairman, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation o Minority Chief Counsel, Senate Committee on the Judiciary 3. Responses to Congressional Inquiries OTA regularly receives inquiries from Congressional offices concerning issues which are the subject of ongoing or recently completed assessments. Responses to such inquiries are provided both orally or in brief written communications. Member Congressman Don Fuqua Congressman Bill Green: Topic Technological Issues of the 80's (other than energy or military) Energy Advantages of High Density Urban Areas PAGE 10 -7-Senator Birch Bayh Senator Howard Metzenbaum Congressmen Edward Markey and Joseph Fisher Congressman Paul Simon Senator Thomas Eagleton Congressman Mike McCormack Senator Jacob Javits Congressman Leon Panetta Congressman Morris Udall Senator Alan Cranston Congressman Robert McClory Congressman Bill Green Congressman Jerry Huckaby Congressman Henry Reuss Congressman Charles Vanik Congressmen Harley Staggers, John Dingell, Bob Eckhardt, and James Florio Senator John Glenn Congressman John Dingell Senator Alan Cranston Senator Herman Talmadge Senator Alan Cranston Senators John Melcher, Max Baucus and Representative Ron Marlenee Ohio River Basin Energy Study Low Head Hydro Co generation Introduction of Methanol as a Transportation Fuel Conservation and Solar Energy Programs of the Department of Energy Energy Demand Electric Power Transmission Costs Breeder Reactor Schedule Coal Photovoltaic Costs Wood Energy Energy Conservation in Cities Nuclear Power Plant Standardization Energy and the Cities Technology and Steel Industry Competitiveness Hazardous Waste Calderon Process Mandated Study on Toxic Substances Agent Orange Chiropractic in New Zealand, Report of the Commission of Inquiry Five Epidemiologic Studies about Herbicides and Cancer Incidence Study of Saline Seeps--their causes, consequences and correction--in the Fort Benton-Highwood Bench region of Montana PAGE 11 -8-Senator Spark Matsunaga Senator Daniel Inouye Congressman Berkley Bedell Congressman George Brown Senator Charles Percy Congressman Tom Evans Congressman Don Fuqua Tropical/subtropical Nutrition Research Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion CO2 Problem Results of the Public Participation and Three Mile Island Conference Present Storage Capacity Problem at Nuclear Reactors Skills Needed in Future Technicians Moon Treaty 4. Briefings, Presentations, Workshops for Congressional Staff Committee SENATE: Appropriations Armed Services C01DD1erce, Science & Transportation Energy & Natural Resources Environment & Public Works Finance Topic Taggants Ocean Margin Drilling Hospital Information Systems Industrial Competitiveness COMSAT/INMARSAT Proposed Legislation to Modify the Communications Act of 1934 Coal Leasing Assessment Utah Task Force Results Away-from-reactor Siting Question, Disposal Problems International Wildlife Resource Conservation Act of 1980 Chiropractic Report and Psychotherapy Case Study Colonial Virginia Foundation for Medical Care PAGE 12 -9-Foreign Relations Governmental Affairs Steel Caucus Veterans' Affairs HOUSE: Appropriations Banking, Finance & Urban Affairs Education & Labor Foreign Affairs Interior & Insular Affairs Interstate & Foreign Commerce House Science & Technology Review Sections of Subcommittee staff report regarding international population programs Taggants (including attendance at mark-up session at the request of the Committee Technology and Steel Industry Competitiveness A.gent Orange Taggants Cost-Effectiveness and PSROs Transportation and the Evolution of Cities Information Technology and Education U.S. Trade Policy: Technology Transfer Tropical Deforestation MX Missile Basing Minerals Policy, Nonfuels Minerals Management and Disposal of Nuclear Waste, Away-from-reactor Siting Freshwater Resource Study Auto Assistance and Automobile Industry Measures 01:ugs in Animal Feed Prescription Drug Use, Evaluation, Reimbursemant & Exportation Compensation for Damage from Hazardous Substances Transportation of Radioactive Waste COMSAT /INMARSAT DoE Conservation and Solar Energy Study Conservation and Small Power Production after PURPA Cancer Report Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion The Impact of Inflation on the Federal R&D Investment Information Technology and Education Coordination of Activities in Information Policy Technology Availability of Premium Quality Federal Coal -Oil Backout Legislation PAGE 13 -10-Steel Caucus Ways & Means Technology and Steel Industry Competitiveness Assessment and Reimbursement of Drugs and other Medical Technologies 5. Subjects of Interaction with Other Congressional Support Agencies Agency CBO CRS GAO CBO, CRS, & GAO Topic Transportation/Energy Projects MX Missile Basing Economics Chapter of Oil Shale Assessment Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Pneumococcal Vaccines Mechanism for Funding of Nuclear Waste Disposal Operation Retrofit of Oil/GAS Boilers for Wood Total Energy Systems, Cogeneration, Photovoltaic/ Thermal Cogeneration Soviet Energy Research Regarding Soviet Technology European Views of East-West Trade Coal Leasing Assessment Ocean Research Technology Status and Plans for NCIC Study NIS Study -Transborder Data Flow Study by CRS WARC Conference Information Policy ANFLOW Process Energy Analysis, Data, Models Energy and Cities Decentralized Electric Power MX Missile Basing Oil Shale Hazardous Waste Coal Leasing Agricultural Research Land Productivity Delaney Clause of the Food and Drug Laws Germ Plasm Maintenance OCS Oil and Gas Post-1985 Automobile Fuel-Economy Standards Telecommunications World Administrative Radio Conference Budgetary Implications of NAVSTAR Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) International Affairs Food and Renewable Resources PAGE 14 -11-IV. EXTERNAL ACTIVITIES As part of its responsibility to provide the Congress with authoritative analyses of technological issues, OTA must maintain close and extensive ties with sources of technical and scientific expertise outside the Government. Presentations of OTA's data and analyses at professional meetings and publication in technical journals are among the ways that such contact can be developed and the quality and c~rrency of OTA's work tested. A. Director o The Conservation Foundation, Environmental Decade Conference on Economic and Social Challenges to the Environmental Agenda. Panel moderator: Implications of Energy Trends for Environmental Goals o Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Sigma Xi Lecture: Energy, Environment and Economic Growth: Is the Sky Falling? o Center for Environmental Information, Inc., Rochester, N.Y., Energy Conservation and Environmental Growth: Challenges of the 80's Seminar: Energy in Transition: 1985-2010 o Resources for the Future, Senior Staff Luncheon: Some Observations after Ten Months at OTA o Bio-Energy Council, Bio-Energy '80 World Congress and Exposition: Special Topics o AFL-CIO, Industrial Union Department, Conference on Energy and Jobs: Energy and Jobs--Conservation, Solar and Renewables o Brookings Institution, Executive Leadership Forum on Science Technology and the Future-Key Policy Issues: Energy/Environmental Tradeoffs o Federal Executive Seminar on Environmental Quality and Natural Resources o Co11DDencement Address, Randolph-Macon College, Ashland, Virginia o AAAS R&D Policy Colloquium: R&D in an Inflationary Environment o University of Pennsylvania, The Analysis Center: Epilogue on the Report of the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems PAGE 15 -12-B. Staff l. Presentations Organization Community Energy Work.shop, Center for Renewable Resources NATO/CCMS, Cotnmittee on Challenges to Modern Society Earthweek '80 NRC, National Academy of Sciences Bioenergy '80 Conference Energy Committee of the Grocery Manufacturers of America Arlington Committee of 100 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Foreign & Commonwealth Office Center for Russian and East European Studies St. Antony's College OECD Trade Directorate/IEA Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik Duetsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung Midrex Corporation Resources for the Future, JSF Washington Center for Learning Alternatives Harvard-MIT NY Academy of Medicine Subject Landlords & Tenants Energy Conservation Technology Assessment Coal Risks Global Environmental Effects of Energy Systems Biomass Cogeneration & Decentralized Energy Systems: Summary of Results of NAS/CONAES Conservation Energy Opportunities for Arlington, Virginia International Competitiveness in Electronics East-West Technology Transfer East-West Technology Transfer East-West Technology Transfer East-West Technology Transfer East-West Technology Transfer East-West Technology Transfer Future of Ironmaking Materials Activities at OTA Oil Shale, Hazardous Waste Regulatory Approaches to Medical Technology Government Approaches to the Management of Medical Technology PAGE 16 -13-Organization Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Assn. Institute of Food Technologists Health Industry Manufacturers Assn. Howard University, School of Pharmacy Health Policy Program, University of California IEEE Annual Meeting University of New York Operations Research Society Project Hope American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons U.S. Naval War College AFCEA (Armed Forces Communications Electronics Association) Symposium University of Mississippi Federal EDP Expo Eighth Annual Telecommunications Policy Research Conference Cavanagh Associates National Computer Conference Office of Secretary of D~fense Subject Overview--OTA Health Program Analysis of Consumer Demands for Information on Frozen Food Labels Federal Health Policy Federal Health Policy Technology Assessment IEEE and Medical Technology Assessment Electronic Fetal Monitoring Medical Technology Assessment Medical Technology Assessment in the Federal Government OTA Health Program Introduction to Outer Space and Space Applications Technology, Telecommunication Services and Society Expected Developments in Next Decade of Space Law Need for Professionalism Among Providers of EDP Services WARC '79 New Electronic Information Technologies Microprocessors and Society Slide Presentation on Space Applications PAGE 17 -14-Organization Federal Executive Seminar Federal Executive Development Program National Academy of Science Ocean Science Board National Academy of Science Ocean Policy University National Oceanographic Labs System (UNOLS) National Academy of Science National Academy of Science American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics 2. Publications Subject Emerging Information Technologies: National Policy and the Congress Technology, Telecommunication and the Qual.ity of Life Oceanographic Ships Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Ocean Research Technology Development of Water Research Needs for the 80's Disposal of Radioactive Waste Advanced High Speed Commercial Aircraft--2000 o J.S. Hirschhorn, "Incentives Versus Major Steelmaking Innovations--The Case for Latin American Leadership," Materials and Society o J.S. Hirschhorn, "Technology and Steel Competitiveness Fen-ous Scrap Trends and Issues," Iron and Steelmaker o J.S. Hirschhorn, "Responsive Technology for Improving U.S. Industrial Competitiveness," Technology and Society o M. Riddiough, "Rx for Safe Drug Use," Cleveland Plain Dealer o David Banta and Clyde Behney, "Efficacy, Safety and Health Care Policy," Connecticut Medicine o M. Riddiough, "Hospital Cost Containment," VOICE o David Banta, "The Diffusion of the Computed Tomography (CT) Scanner in the United States," International Journal of Health Services, Vol. 10, No. 2 PAGE 18 -15-o Joyce C. Lashof, "The Need for Planning Ahead in Health-effects Research," Health Effects of Photovoltaic Technology (Proceedings of a Workshop held at Brookhaven National Laboratory o Raymond Crowell, "Technology, Telecommunication Services and Society," Proceedings of the 3d Annual Vital Issues Symposium-Air Force Communications and Electronics Association o Marvin Ott, "Coal Slurry Pipelines," in Energy Policy Modeling: United States and Canadian Experiences 3. Other Organization President's Committion on the l98O's Johns Hopkins American University NSF and Re~s~elear P~lytechnic Institute Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Aspen Institute for Humanistic Studies, Committee on Energy Aspen Institute for Humanistic Studies, Committee on Energy Arthur D. Little, Inc. Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Institute for Energy Analysis American University, Washington College of Law's Washington Law Semester Activity Briefing by staff Evening graduate course on Technology and International Affiars Presentations to Conference on Cooperative Global Politics Workshop on Philosophy and Science Policy Seminar on Prospects: Environment and Society in the 198O1s Roundtable on Coping with U.S. Petroleum Supply Interruptions Roundtable on the World Coal Study, Coal: A Bridge to the Future Washington Roundtable on the Impact of Information Technology Seminar on Bilateral Energy Assistance Policy Class on The Lawyer as Technology Assessor PAGE 19 -16-Organization Australia National Energy R&D Council, Australian Committee on Fuel Ethanol, Australian Dept. of National Development & Energy, and Trade Office, Embassy of Australia Gas Research Institute American Association of Geographers Ohio State University NAS/NMAB National Academy of Sciences American Society of Agronomy, Soil Science Society, Crop Science Society Experiment Station Committee on Policy (ESCOP) Resources for the Future Fifth Annual Colloquium on R&D Policy Group of 65 from the Washington area who Worked copperatively to develop a U.S. strategy for addressing the tropical deforestation problem National Academy of Sciences Board on Agriculture and Renewable Resources of the National Research Council Activity Meeting on Fuel Ethanol Discussion of Conserv~tion R&D Conference on Soviet Natural Resources Conference on Energy and National Security Committee reviewing import of DoD Very High Speed Integrated Circuit Program International Institute for Applied System Analysis Food and Renewable Resources Food and Agricultural Research Conference on The Adequacy of Agricultural Land--Future Problems and Policy Alternatives R&D Policy Discussion of Strategy for Addressing Tropical Deforestation Impacts of Technologies on Land Productivity U.S. Food and Agricultural Research PAGE 20 -17-Organization Symposium on Research Evaluation Methodology Georgetown University, Nurse-Midwifery Program American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy American Academy of Ophthalmology World Bank French Society for the Study of Economic and Social Development Congressional Clearinghouse on the Future Congressional Institute for the Future/Congressional Clearinghouse on the Future Group from the Fort BentonHighwood Bench region of Montana World Health Organization U.S. Interagency Task Force Washington Nutrition Group Federal ADP User Group University of Sussex Sussex Research Center German Administration Activity U.S. Food and Agricultural Research National Health Insurance and Nurse-midwifery OTA reports and Me4ical/health Policy OTA Health Program activities and the role of outside advisory panels Forestry in Developing Countries Environmental/economic Issues Domestic Information Display System Demonstration-Graphic Computer Mapping Capabilities Congressional Roundtable on Emerging Issues Causes, extent and impacts of expanding saline seeps in the summer-fallow agricultural areas Planned Birth Technologies The World's Tropical Forests: A Policy, Strategy, and Program for the United States Food and Renewable Resources Development and Analysis of a survey of the major issues in Data Processing and Data Communication as Viewed by Federal Employees Terminal Equipment Market PAGE 21 -18-Organization Scientific & Technical Information, European Community (Common Market) Delaware Technical and Community College Aerospace Industries Association C. Notable Press-Requested Interviews Activity Telecommunication and Information Systems Technologies for Appropriate Curricula Development Air Transportation Studies o More than 1,450 press clippings were received at OTA pertaining to its reports and activities (sample clippings are included at the end of this report) o Interview by Wil Lepkowski, Chemical and Engineering News, on OTA in general o Interview for New York radio broadcast on indoor Air quality results from OTA Residential Energy Conservation report o Interview by Station WIND, Chicago, on The Effects of Nuclear War o Interview by Congressional Quarterly on Taggants o Interviews by ABC News, Chicago radio station, Voice of America, and television broadcast to Billings, Cheyenne, and Bakersfield on Oil Shale o Interviews by Physician's Radio Network, The New York Times, and Scripps Howard News on the Physician Supply and Requirements report o Interview by Computing Europe on NIS Studies D. Brown Bag Seminar Series The OTA Information Center, in coordination with the Director's Office, initiated an informal Brown Bag Seminar Series during the third quarter. The series features weekly guests speaking on a variety of topics of interest to OTA. It provides a forum for the exchange of ideas both with the guest and with other OTA staff members. The calendar of seminars during the third quarter was: PAGE 22 -19-April 4 -Jerry Ward, OTA Transportation Program Cities and Transportation: Looking Ahead April 25-Gus Speth, Chairman, Council on Environmental Quality Carbon Dioxide: Environmental Effects May 2 Stephen Doyle, OTA Telecommunications Program Space: The Next 25 Years May 16 -Louise Williams & Bob Grossmann, OTA Genetics & Population Program Up Against the Wall?: Implementing Innovation & Change in Developing Countries May 23 Robert Shaw, Booz Allen & Hamilton Hydrogen as a Fuel May 30 James Duke, U.S. Department of Agriculture Unusual Plant Resources June 6 -The Honorable George E. Brown, Jr., Technology Assessment Board OTA, Science Policy, and Congress June 13 -Laura Nader, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars The People Problem: Lifestyles and Energy June 20 Where Did the Colorado Go? Film produced by WGBH, Boston June 27 Dr. Robert P. Giovacchini, Cor?orate Vice-President Risk Assessment: Industry's Dilemma Over Safety PAGE 23 Publication Briefs PAGE 25 Volume Ill, Issue 8, July 1, 1980 PUBLICATION BRIEF Technology and Steel Industry Competitiveness Steel will probably remain the world's most important engineering material, and the steel industry. is vital to the Nation's security and economic prosperity. However, unless action is taken, continued low profitability and some Federal policies, such as long depreciation times for new facilities, will cause the domestic steel industry to contract substantially. Many jobs could be lost, and the Nation might become vulner able to scarce and high-priced imports, which by 1990 could account for 40 percent of the domestic market, compared with recent levels of about 15 percent. The U.S. steel industry can be revitalized through increased investment in R&D and the adoption of new technology. For that to happen, however, OTA estimates that steelmakers must increase their capital spending on production facilities by at least 50 percent during the next decade, to approximately $3 billion per year as compared to in dustry estimates of $4.9 billion (1978 dollars), in order to modernize existing mills, expand capacity modestly, and bring profitability up to the level of most other domestic manufacturing industries. At the $3 billion level, supportive Federal policies would be required to generate at least $600 million of this additional capital per year. Small nonintegrated steel plants that rely on ferrous scrap rather than iron ore to produce the simpler steel products could nearly double their market share (now at about 13 percent} in the coming decade, provided that adequate electricity and scrap are available in specific market areas. Considerable market potential could be exploited to increase exports by the highly competitive alloy/specialty steelmakers in the next 10 years, if the new Multilateral Trade Agreement is enforced vigorously. Following restructuring, modernization, and expansion in the 1980's, the industry could adopt major new steelmaking innovations if the Federal Government supports more basic research in steelmaklng, provides incentives for more Industry R&D, and assists in pilot and demonstration projects. Such major process innovations could then bring the domestic industry a competitive advantage, rather than mere parity with foreign industries. This is the type of long-range strategic technology planning that the industry has not done well. A well-designed and vigorously implemented government policy has nurtured the Japanese steel industry's expansion and adoption of new technology. The U.S. steel industry, on the other hand, has been hurt by a long series of Federal policies that have frequently been uncoordinated, contradictory, and inattentive to critical issues. A Federal policy that coordinates the industry's needs, the Nation's interests, and specific technical concerns is an important option. Neither technology nor capital, alone, will solve the steel industry's problems. New technologies could be adopted by the domestic industry if problems of insuffi cient capital and uncertain import policies are resolved. One such technology already used by major foreign competitors is the continuous casting of molten steel, which reduces energy consumption, increases productivity, and expands steelmaking capac ity. Another, the coal-based direct reduction of iron ore to produce a low-cost substi tute for ferrous scrap and blast furnace iron, may be developed commercially within the next 5 to 15 years. Potential advantages include reduced capital costs, reduced pollution, and increased use of coal. Copies of the full OTA report, "Technology and Steel Industry Competitiveness," are avail able from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-00760-6; the price is $8.00. Copies of the full report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summary copies are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment tOTA) is an advisory arm of t:ie L'.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technoio:,;ical changes. Address: OTA, U.S. Congress. Washington, D.C. 20510. Phone: 202 224-0885. (OTA offices are located at 600 Pennsylvania Ave., S.E.1 John H. Gibbons. Director. PAGE 26 Volume Ill, Issue 7, June 24, 1980 'E PUBLICATION BRIEF :;Oil Shale Technologies An oil shale industry could benefit the Nation's economy and security and help ease the liquid fuel supply problem. However, the rapid deployment of a large industry (500,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) or more by 1990) would entail economic, environmental, and social risks. Financial incentives could spur production. Production tax credits, purchase agreements, and price supports would be the most effective. Federal debt guarantees or debt insurance would help smaller firms. The high-grade oil shale reserves of the Western United States could, with exist ing technologies, produce at least 400 billion bbl of oil. This equals 57 years' worth of current U.S. petroleum consumption, and is over 2.5 times the estimated reserves of Saudi Arabia. Recent increases in the price of world oil may make shale oil price competitive with foreign crude, depending on: the reliability of current cost estimates for plants, the continuation of oil price increases, the effects of Federal and State regulatory action, and the required rate of return on capital. About 80 percent of the richest shale is on Federal land. Four tracts (in Colorado and Utah) have been leased under the Federal Prototype. Leasing Program. None of the extensive private holdings is now being developed commercially. Production beyond about 400,000 bbl/d is possible only if additional Federal land, with high-grade shale, is made available. Of the three major processes for converting raw shale to oil, only one is now being commercially developed. Crude shale oil, upgraded and refined, is a somewhat better source of jet and diesel fuel than of gasoline. Oil shale development could have important environmental impacts. Many im pacts are regulated by existing State and Federal environmental laws, although some wastes pose unique challenges and a number of serious uncertainties exist. The Clean Air Act, the only existing environmental law that might limit the industry, could hold production in Colorado to about 400,000 bbl/d, although additional production could occur in Utah. A 500,000-bbl/d industry would increase approximately 1.5 percent the surf ace water demands projected for the Upper Colorado River Basin in the year 2000. Surplus surface water could support this industry until at least 2000, sometime after 2000 scar cities may limit all types of regional growth. Any large.scale industry will require addi tional storage and transportation of water within the region. Development will change the communities in the sparsely populated rural region. Adverse effects could occur, especially if oil shale development accompanies other in dustrial expansion. Without strong preventive measures, social and personal distress (boomtowns) will happen. Between 1985-90, communities in Colorado could probably accommodate the growth of a 200,000-bbl/d industry. Anything larger would require extensive impact mitigation programs. Copies of the full OTA report, "An Assessment of Oil Shale Technologies," are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-00759-2; the price is $7.00. Copies of the full report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summary copies are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office of Technology Assessment 10T A) 1s ar, advisory arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help iegislators anticipate and plan ror the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OT A, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C. 20510. Phone: 202, 224-0885. i_OT A offices are located at b00 Pennsylvania Ave .. S.E. 1 John H. Gibbons. Director. PAGE 27 Volume Ill, Issue 6, June 11, 1980 PUBLICATION BRIEF Conservation and Solar Energy Programs: A Critique A lack of direction and leadership by Department of Energy (DOE) management is hampering the progress of the DOE Conservation and Solar Energy (C&SE) Programs. Many C&SE programs suffer from inadequate planning, frequent and debilitating management changes and reorganizations, and other internal difficulties, although some are doing well and are staffed by many dedicated and competent people. This is the main finding of an OTA review of C&SE programs conducted with the aid of two panels of experts. The membership of the panels was designed to provide a balance of skills and viewpoints. The national goals for solar energy outlined in the administration's 1979 Domestic Policy Review (OPR), and endorsed in administration messages to Congress, have not been universally accepted within DOE, and C&SE programs have not been designed to meet them~ No effort similar to the DPR has been made to establish conservation goals, which presently are defined implicitly. Conservation investments currently represent the most economic opportunity for dealing with the energy crisis. Critical C&SE management problems include lack of both procedures and funding for program evaluation, extraordinary delays in processing contracts and filling staff vacancies, changing management and frequent reorganization, insufficient coordina tion between solar and conservation incentives, and difficulties in defining and imple menting "commercialization" efforts. C&SE also exhibits a number of institutional problems in such areas as coordina tion of energy policy and action within the Federal Government, assistance to the States, commercialization of solar and conservation technologies, and questions of competing or conflicting roles among various units of the organization-headquarters offices, Regional Offices, the Regional Solar Energy Centers, the Solar Energy Research Institute, and the National Laboratories. From its review of specific program elements, OT A concludes: wind energy is a nearer term technology than DOE appears to believe; photovoltaics may not meet stated goals unless DOE acts more aggressively; biomass management should be tightened and the staff augmented; transportation should reevaluate its efforts in both advanced engines and electric vehicles; and solar active, passive, and conservation technologies must be integratedto achieve optimum energy use in new and existing residential and commerciaJ buildings. Copies of the full OTA report, .. Conservation and Solar Energy Programs of the Department of Energy: A Critique," are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock stock number is 052-003-00757-6; the price is $3.75. Copies of the report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) is an advisory arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to help legislators ant1opate and plan tor the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OT A, U.S. Congress. Washington. D.C. 20510. Phone: 202 224-0885. (OTA oHices are located at bOO Pennsylvania Ave., S.E. \ lohn H. Gibbons. Dlrector. PAGE 28 Volume Ill. Issue 5, April 28, 1980 PUBLICATION BRIEF Taggants in Explosives A new technology to place "taggants" (miniature labeling devices) in commercial explosives and gunpowders could be a useful tool against many terrorist and other criminal bombers. However, there are questions of safety which wou1d have to be resolved before a taggant program could be put into effect. Two different kinds of taggants could be used for different purposes. Identifica tion taggants are microscopic chips containing a code, designed so that the chips could be recovered from the debris of a bomb explosion. The code would provide law enforcement officials with a list of the last legal purchasers of the explosive material used in the bomb, and thus assist in finding the bomber. Detection taggants emit a vapor which would escape from a suitcase or package containing a bomb, and which could be detected by a sensing machine placed at an airport, public building entrance, or other suitable site. There has been considerable controversy over the technical development, safety, cost, and law enforcement utility of such taggants. OTA found that the taggants would probably work, atthough some of the claims made by those developing them are exag gerated. Questions about the safety of adding such taggants to explosive materials would have to be resolved before a program could go forward. The cost of a program varies depending on how extensive the program is; OT A assessed the costs of one possible program at about $25 million per year for either identification or detection tag gant~ and S45 million per year for both. A taggant program would be of significant val ue to law enforcement; however, it would not help much against bombings which caused little damage and the most sophisticated terrorists and professional criminals could probably find ways to evade the effects of a taggant program. If research, development, and testing continue and satisfactory results are achieved, a full-scale taggant program could be in effect by 1985. Copies of the full OTA report, "Taggants in Explosives," are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-004-00747-9; the price is $6.50. Copies of the full report tor congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summary copies are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assess ment. The Office ot Technolc,gy Assessment iOTA) is an advisory arm of the C.S. Congress whose basic tunct1on is to help, legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts ot technological changes. Address: OTA. U.S. Congress. v\ashrngton, D.C 205i0. Phone: 202 22-!-0885. iOTA oHices are located at 600 Pennsylvania Ave., S.E, 1 John H. Gibbons, D1rect,,r. PAGE 29 Volume Ill, Issue 4, April 16, 1980 PUBLICATION BRIEF Forecasts of Physician Supply and Requirements The supply of physicians is growing at an unprecedented rate. The United States is expected to have 600,000 physicians by 1990, as against 378,000 in 1975. As a result, Federal concern has shifted from the total number to the kinds needed and where they are needed. Wide variations in forecasts of the number and kinds of physicians needed and where they should practice make it difficult to develop effective legislative policies. Two main physician-forecasting efforts exist. The Bureau of Health Manpower (BHM) of the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) provides annual reports which include estimates of the present and future supply of and need for physi cians and other health professionals. In addition, DHHS has chartered a Graduate MedicaJ Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) to make recommenda tions on present and future requirements for physicians, their specialty and locational distribution, and methods for financing graduate medical education programs. These two groups use different forecasting methods. BHM relies on standard economic tech niques, while GMENAC uses a medical opinion approach. Forecasts of needed medical services reflect projected population growth and changes in its age, sex, and income distribution, as well as per capita use. Different assumptions about demographic changes, per capita use, and/or physician productivity lead to different estimates of how many physicians are required. Adjusting only for demographic changes, BHM estimates that 415,000 physicians will be required in 1990. Decreases in productivity and/or increases in per capita use would increase the requirements. With the further assumption of increased per capita use, the BHM pro jection rises to 600,000. Adequate forecasts of how many physicians are required in each specialty cannot be made until agreement is reached on what these specialties are. Experts disagree on what primary care is and what specialties it includes. The Health Manpower Shortage Area (HMSA) designation is the vehicle for pro viding Federal support through the National Health Service Corps, determining eligibil ity for certain Federal grant programs, and obtaining Federal reimbursement for nurse practitioners' and physicians' assistants' services. In contrast to forecasting techniques for aggregate and specialty requirements, the methods used to identify H MSAs and the number of physicians they require contain assumptions on how physicians should be distributed and how much the Federal Government should be involved in such efforts. Projections of physician supply and requirements depend on historical data to predict future events, but even recent historical data reflect past policies, not current ones. The limits of forecasts must be fully understood if they are to serve as effective tools in the shaping of Federal medical policy. Those limits could be made cfearer by explicitly describing the assumptions behind any forecasts, by making alternative forecasts based on different sets of assumptions, and by expanding the forecasting process to include policymakers as well as technicians in establishing the parameters. Copies of the full OTA report, ;!Forecasts of Physician Supply and Requirements," are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-00746-1; the price is $3.75. Copies of the full report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. The Office of Technology Assessment {OTA! is an advisory arm of the U.S. Congress whose basic function is to heip legislators anticipate and plan tor the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OT A. L .S. Congress. Washington, D.C. 205'10. Phone: 202: 224-0l385. (OT A offices are located at 600 Pennsylvania Ave .. S.E. John H. Gibbons. Director. PAGE 30 Volume 111, Issue 3, April 15, 1980 PUBLICATION BRIEF Advanced High-Speed Aircraft Barring some major disruption in the growth of the world economy, and assuming reasonable success in coping with increasingly costly energy, the total market for air travel and commercial aircraft could continue to expand in the future. In the 1990's, the current fleet of jet transports may need replacement and the aerospace industry may want to consider technologically advanced transports of either subsonic or super sonic design. However, developing that new technotogy for either type of advanced aircraft will be extremely costly. If an economically viable and environmentally acceptable advanced supersonic transport (ASn could be built in the 1990-2010 period, it could command some SS0 billion of sales in 1979 dotlars or about one-third of the total sales anticipated for the long-distance market through 2010. However, whether such an AST can or will be built depends on the future price and availability of fuel, the ability to meet increasing pub lic sensitivity to noise around airports, and the ability to finance a highly advanced new commercial air transport. Such a development will almost certainly not occur in the near future without substantial Government participation. An AST that could fly faster and haul more passengers than the Concorde would offer the advantage of higher "productivity" compared to a new subsonic aircraft. ("Productivity" is a function of the speed of the aircraft, load factor, and hours used in revenue service per year.) However, higher productivity does not necessariiy mean profitability. The AST now envisioned would be able to fly faster than 1,600 mph, allow ing it to carry twice as many passengers a day on long-distance flights as a subsonic aiicraft of equivalent size. The major operating cost drawback to an AST is fuet consumption. An AST could burn two times more fuel per seat-mile than an advanced subsonic aircraft. This factor offsets the higher productivity of an AST and could mean higher fares-possibly up to one-third more than for the advanced subsonic plane. Passengers who highly value their time may tolerate this fare difference. However, greater fuel consumption raises energy concerns as well as objections to Government support for a project perceived by some as serving only selected ctasses. In the United States a Supersonic Cruise Research (SCA) program, conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration since the American SST was can celed in 1971, has made significant advances in the areas of aerodynamics, structures, propulsion, and noise reduction. While foreign manufacturers are becoming more competitive in the subsonic field, their willingness to embark on an AST is tempered by the same uncertainties as those facing the U.S. industry. Given the possibility of an expanded market, and the importance to the U.S. econ omy and international trade balance of capturing a share of that market, it woutd appear that, if Congress wishes to keep the supersonic option alive, the existing level of Federat support in the generic research and development (R&D) is not adequate. While further generic R&D to validate the supersonic technologies should facilitate a decision on whether or not to initiate an AST development, it will not answer critical questions such as price and availability of future fuel supplies, sensitivity of the public to aircraft noise, and the ability to finance such a major capital commitment. Copies of the full OTA report, "Impact of Advanced Air Transport Technology, Part !Advanced High-Speed Aircraft," are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office. The GPO stock number is 052-003-00745-2; the price is SA.25. Copies of the full report for congressional use are available by calling 4-8996. Summar, copies are available at no charge from the Office of Technology Assessment. The Office ot Technology Assessment IOTA I is an advis<.,ry arm of the L' .S_. CL1ngress wnose t>as.c t~nctiL'n is to help_ le?isiators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes. Address: OTA. l:_.S. C.mgress. \\ashmgton. D.C. 20510. Phone: 202 :?24-0885. (OTA ottices are located at o00 Pennsylvania Ave .. S.E.1 John H. Gibbons. [);rector. PAGE 31 Selected News Clips on OTA Publications and Activities - PAGE 33 Steel PAGE 35 The Christian Science ~onitor July 2, 1980 By 8ar1h J. Falkeoberg, staff~ lt'I tatce a lot of doing to put the spark back into the domestic s1eel indus1ry, a new govemment report says us-steelmak8rs: $30 billion fixup? By Joma Yemma Staff correspondent of Tbe Cbristlan Science Monitor .. .,,,,.,,., America's steel industry, Hke the auto industry, has dropped iDtO the slow lane and is losing speed. Battered by imports and laboring under aged machinery, Amencan steel manutacturers already have given up 15 percent of tbe domestic market to overseas competitors -principally from Japan -and by 1990 may have yielded 40 percent. Unemployment ID tbe industry Is at its highest since 1933, ID the midst of the Great Depression. according to industry statistics. At peak production, steel employs 486,000 laborers and managers. Only with. a huge new spending program. one estimated by some ana lysts to cost S3 billion a year over the next 10 years. can steel mills be mod e.rnized, capacity expanded. jobs protected, and prolits realized. "Re-industrialization" of the in dustry can be accomplished. says a report released July 1 by the congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), if the federal govern ment primes the .pump by changing the tax struct).U'e, eases stringent enviromnelltal regulations, and vigorously enforc~ new international trade laws. This done, the industry may be able to jlllllp ahead of overseas com petition by 1990, and adopt innovative new technology, such as the "direct reduction" of iron from iron ore environmentaJly cleaner than existing processes and a shortcut around the costly coke oven and blast furnace Please turn to Page 9 PAGE 36 Frompage1 US steelmakers: a $30 billion fixup? steps. companies back. The new OTA report, entitled "Technology The American Iron & Steel Institute (A!Sl) and Steel Industry Competitiveness.'' should worked closely with the OT A in preparing the be fuel !or the current national debate over report, and it follows along the same lines as a tax cutting. January 1980 AISl forecast of the steel indus-To make that $30 billion in investment cap-try in the 1980s. ital coalesce, says the steel industry, Con-Many of the soaring expenses in gress must approve a capital cost-recovery steelmaldng, say both the OT A and the AISI. proposal, popularly known as "10-5-3," that are because of policies of the Environmental would speed tax depreciation for costly equip-Protection Agency (EPA) and the Oceupa ment. U enacted. this proposal would allow tional Safety and Health Administration steelrnak1ng machinery to be depreciated (OSHA). The steel industry reports that EPA over tlve years instead of the present 15. and OSHA-related investments during the The 11>+3 proposal bas 300 co-sponsors in 1970s amounted to about $365 million a year. the House and 52 in the Senate but is tied up in 17 percent of its total annual capital committees of both houses. It sbould be noted investments. that llrS-3 was part of the tax cut plan proThe industry has been calling for a more posed by Ronald Reagan and GOP congresg, practical approach" from government regu men June 25. Democrats promise their own lators. Instead of retrofitting old steel plants capital recovery plan by September, to be with pollution-control equipment, for in drawn up by a study group headed by Sen. stance. oruy plants with "the most flagrant Lloyd Bentsen (D) of Texas. violations" should be cleaned up. says AISI. Carter administration economists, mean-The industry faces a struggle with governwhile, have favored a more targeCed apment regulators and environmental groups proach aiding aiUng industries such as over air and water cleanup in the 1980s, Air steel. A plan proposed JUiy 1 by Rep. Charles quality standards for particulates emitted by Vanik (D) of Obio comes close to what the steel plants are due to become tougher by adrniaistntion bas advocated in the past. Mr. 1982. But these already are more stringent Vanik's plan would give depreciation brealcs"'than necessary, claims the AISI. to selected industries in need of stimulation. No new air and water standards should be Also to be considered, says the OT A study, Imposed that cannot be demonstrated to be are investment tax credits and 8IJ81'3.Dteed cost effective, the orgaaization says. The OTA loans. The OTA does i:lot endorse any particu report, however, says because it would be dif. lar approach. but.devotes much attention to ftcu.lt to calculate the social benefits of regulH-3. It admits that accelerated depredation lations, such an approach may be unfeasible. ln tu credits could drain government rev Uthe capital can be acquired by 1990, time enues but predicts that in time a healthy inmay be on the side of the steel industry. In dustry will result. stead of updating plants usingexisting tech ''The near-term direct costs of any of these nology, the OTA says. government and indus programs would ID:ely be offset by increased try should spend the 1980s developing new tu revenues after the rejuvenation of the doproct!SSeS, such as rolling mills to make flat mesttc Industry." says the nonpartisan advt products. and, more important. "direct resory arm of Congress. duced" iron. In this latter process, natural Wba~ver approach Is decided upon, the gas or coal is used to tum iron ore into iron. OTA says, federal support will need to generMolten iron tben Is put into a basic oxygen ate at least an addit1ona1 S600 million in cap-furnace and made into steel. ital per year for the steel industry; the reThe benefits of this process are substan mamder must come from private sources. tial. says the OT A: Processing and final steel This will primarily benefit the behemoths, procb,tcts can be improved, production costs such as US Steel. Bethlehem Steel, and lowered, and pollution reduced. Moreover. National Steel. America's plentiful coal could be the energy But the OTA sees strong promise in small source. The product would be a valuable ex er, nonintegrated US steel producers that rely port to countries. such as Japan. that use elec on ferrous scrap rather than iron ore to tric furnaces, but at present the technology produce simpler steel products. has not been perfected. There also is potential for more exports by "Untommately." says James Collins. ex-alloy and specialty-steel companies under the ecutive vice-president of AISI. "this process new Multilateral Trade Agreement. says the bas not yet arrived. In the main. we agree OTA. But unless new trade agreements are [withOTAJthatourindustryisinneedofmod Vigorously enforced. a surge in imports -or erniZation. But we don't agree with the tech fear of such a surge could set all US steel nological scenario." PAGE 37 THE NEW YORK TIMES JULY 2, 1980 U.S. Report Calls Steel Outlook Bleak By CLYDE H. FARNSWORnl Splaalflle,._Ynnm. WASHINGTON, July 1The Office otTeclmo1'>1:y Assessment, an advisory arm of Congress, issued a lcag.-waited, report today oa tbe American scee1 industry tbat projected a bleak fuiure of 1-Jobi and bilh import peneuattca wit.bout cbanges in Federal polides to tioa's industtial bue, was critical ot ''UnCOOrdmated, contradictory'' Govermneni polldes tbat it said bad contribuced to the iadusa'y's current state ot-..mess. steelmaking uid capitalize on the benefits of upamioa by smaller steelmak ers. As one Wu.stratioa of the potential for small steel companies, the report cited advances by the Berg Steel Pipe Corpo. ration of Panama City, Fla., whicb recently announced the opening of the na tion's largest diameter pipe mill in a ?,id to capNre part of a market deeply penecrated by foreign stee!makers. But it scwd notice that any new Federal poUdes would be ineffectiw Without .. appropriate shifts in tbe attitulies and polides" ot the lnduatry it-self. help generate more capilal. !DaltrJPoUdesNeedRmew lbe company uses a so-called pyramid rolliJ2g procesa to make the pipe, 1be study, wtlicb is expected to fig ure prominently in the debate OYer tax and ocher policies to sU'mgtben the naIt said, for a.ample, that the industry sbou1d re-examine its poUdes of usmg captw for diwrstficatioa out of Coaduued oa Pqe DI Bleak Outlook for Steel Contained in U.S. Study CoaUlllled From Ftrst Basiilesl Pap the fiffl domestic application of an established European technology. The Office of Technology Assessment, wttb a board comprising both legislators and prominent tedmical adviaen, was created ~ght years ago to help policy makers amidpate and plan tor the comequences of technical dumge. Imports May .... hrtller lta 374-pap report on steel caJls the iDdmUy ~w to the nation's security and economk; pn,speiity" but warm tbat without new policy directiom im. pons by 1990 could accaum for 40 percent of the domestic market, compared With recent JeveJI of about 15 percent. The industry can be revitalized.," it stresses, tbrougb increased mvestment l:a raearch and dewlopmeat ud the adoption of new technology. For tbat to llappea. bowever, steelmaars must increase their capiW spendlns oa produc:t1oa facilities by at least 50 percent during tbe nut decade to approximately S3 ?,illlon a year in order to modernize edtinsi mills, expand capacity and bring profitablity up to tbe level of most otber domestic manufacturlng industries. 1'be American Iron acd Steel Institute, tbe industty's trade orpnization, places amwal capital needs closer to $5 billion. eoaar-atoaaJ Hearlnp Plaaned "Supporttve Federal policies are needed to generate at least $600 million of dUs additional capital per year," the rep:,n says. It said measures that should be considered Include faster de~ation scbedule.s for larger write-offs on new mvestment, increased Federal .support of basic research and trade policies aimed at unfairly priCed steel impons. The report wu published as a peti tion by the United States Steel Corpora tion against unfairly priced European scee1 was in a process of adjudication by the International Trade Commission and the Commerce Department. U.S. Steel is asking for impositiOn of sharply lligber duties on the European steel. Charles A. Yanik, Democrat of Ohio, cbairman of the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade, released the stUdy at a capitol Hill news conference. and said he would scbedule hearings for his panel later tJ:lill summer on some of its conclusions. Mr. Vanik and most other legislators c:ommentmg on the findings spoke of the need for dlanges in tu: SUUCt:Ure to encourage more capital formation for buic indUsUy. I I I PAGE 38 Steel lndtJStrySeen Neeclirig Federal Aid By Peter Behr WUIUnCCon Poa, SC&!t Wrttere The American steel industry will need government-guaranteed loans or other federal assistance if it is to over come critical problems with declinino production, backward technology and low profitability, a detailed congres sional study has conch1'1ed. A. grim picture of the prospects for the nation's large, integrated steei companies was painted yesterday by the congressional Office of Technology : Assessment in a.37 4-page study. l. The greatest need is for a coordi nated federal policy toward the steel industry patterned after the practice in Japan, based on goals for growth and modernization, the ~tudy said. The industry, whose production ca pacity increased only 1 percent in the 1962-78 period, has suffered through a series of major plantclosings since then. It is likely to shrink further un less it gets government help and tries harder to save itself, the study said. "Many jobs could be lost and the na tion might become vulnerable to scarce and high-priced imports, which by 1990 could account for 40 percent of the domestic market, compared with recent levels of about 15 percent," the report said. Congress should examine limitedterm loan guarantees for companies that cannot raise capital through con ventional means and are willing to take the risks of investing in long-range, in novative technology, said the report. prepared by the committee staff and reviewed by a panel of industry ex perts. Other ki:lds of government support couid be used, the study said, citins tax credits. faster depreciation of plane and equipment and government funded research and development en basic steel technology. The House Wavs and ).,[eans t:ade subc'ommittee wiil hold hearings on the government's policy toward the steel industry, said Chairman Charles See STEEL. F~. Col. J THE WASHI~GTON POST JULY 2, 1980 OTi-\. Stt1clv Finds U.S. Steel J Ind11Stry Needing Federal Aicl STEEL, From Fl Vanik (D-Ohio) at a press conference where the OTA report was released. The industry can be revitalized by an investment of S3 billion a year in research and new facilities over the next decade, a 50 percent increase over cur rent levels, the study predicted. This strategy probably could hold imports at the current 15 percent level, the study added. However, actual private capital in vestment is likely to run at least ,%00 million a year below that goal through 1988, the study concluded. a gap that \Vould have to be filled bv ,ome combi nation of federal assista~ce and higher prices and profits. The American Iron and Steel Institate., speaking for the steel producers, has said capital investment of $4.9 bil lion a year will be needed to revitalize the industry. The study criticized the manage ment of the large, integrated steel firms, that begin with iron ore and produce finished steel products, for a long-standing indifference to ne,v steel-making technology that has helped their foreign competitors. "More often tha11 not, steel industry e:tecutives express a desire to be sec ond with proven technology. not first with new technology.,This situation is dearly a barrier to innovation that does not exist in many ot.het indu~ tri es," the study sai ads" report would carry spendwider use of electric furnaces. ing of M.9-billion a year for modpointing to the steady growth of this emization and expansion during segment of the industry in intethe decade. grated as well astheso-called mini-The renewal scenario .. option'" mills or nonintegrated mills. for the industry would not see the Some of the government-related adoption of major new technology options for assisting the industry in~unng the 10-year period but the elude faster depreciation of plant industry could become profitable and equipment loan guarantees. enough to participate in the deinvestment tax credits. the removal ~lopmentofinnovativetechnology of unce~inty about imports. sup m the 1990s. port of basic research and the crea-"Under this scenario. the 1980s is tion of incentives for spending on the decade of growth for the smal-research and development. accord ler nonintegrated steelmakers and ing to the OT A. the 1990s with increased capital The industry should follow a investmentthe decade of growth course of emphasizing steel ex-ports, the sale of high profit margin steels, increasing innovation through the use of coal-based direct reduced iron. closing obsolete plants and simplifying the product mixes of the integrated production facilities. the report said. The report states, however. that "new federal policies would.be in effective ~ithout appropriate shifts in the attitudes and policies of industry. For example, industry would have to re-examine its policies of using capital for diversifica tion out of steelmaking. .. and resist ing industry restructuring by ignoring the benefits of expansion by small, scrap-based steelmakers." The government, aceording to the study, has contributed to the loss of the international competitiveness of parts of the domestic steel indus try in several ways, including limit ing domestic price increases, and in imposing environmental and worker health regulations that add to the cost of steelmaking. PAGE 52 Los Angeles Times June 26, 1980 Study Urges. Help for U.S. Steel Firms PI'l'l'SBURGB brt wan/WI .\.tJ,tl t\l~ "risks associated" wit~ an ''overex tended" effort al oil-shale development could produce wasteful and damaging et'onomic results, including a "severe regional inflation" in the oil-shale arnas. Although Congress has been workmg nearly a year on the synthetic-fuels program requested by Carter and this week is expected to lake fi~l action both on a Synthetic lt'uels Corporation and an Energy Mobilization Board to "fast track" synfuels pojects, no tbrect mention of those programs was ni"ade by the technology assessment report. 1'IIE REPOllT caJTicd a warning that the government bureaucracy and red tape might "hinder development." In discussing the socioeconomic im pacts of a massive oil-shale develop ment, the study quoted Sen. On-in Hatch, R-lJlah, a member of the Otricc or Technology Assessment congres sional board or directors: Utah and Colorado, with most of I he nation's oil-shale reserves, are looking al the business end of a very larg1i federal cannon, loaded wilh b1l lio11s for synthetic-fuels development." llalch saul. 'fllE UTAH SENA'fOU said the re port "lends credence to the rears that some or us in the West have regarding the rnherenl dangers of any crash fed-1r.tl program lo develop Western lautls." In the financial portion of the report, it was: '/eSst.-d, however, that financial incenli .. ~swill be needed, even lo push developmenl lo a 200,000-barrel a-day ml-shale industry. The "most effeclive incentives," the report said, would be lax credits lo firms involved in the developmenl, purchase agreements on finished prod ucts and price supports for shale oil production. "Projects may be delayed or precluded by procedures for o~lainiug permits, by siting or process changes necessitated by regulations or litiga tion or by future regulations that cannot he mcl economically," llw report said PAGE 61 Philadelphia Inquirer June 26. 1980 Oil shale report urges moderation By David Hess IC..,....,,._...,._ Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), an OTA board member, said the report"lends WASHINGTON -A moderate but credence to the fears that some of us steady effort to develop the nation's in the West have regarding the inoil shale would pay bigger diVidends herent dangers of any crasb federal over the next decade than a crash programs to develop western lands." program, according to a report by the The OTA report said that wb.atever congressional Office a( Tecboolagy the scale of development. there AssessmentCOTAl, would be "tough trade-offs among Tlie-repon was released. Monday, economic, enVirOnmental and other after last week's congressional pasobjectives." sage of a S20 billion measure for the ~ut a moderate program, the report development of synthetic fuels. said, would reduce much of theenVi The report punct~red the hopes of ronmental and economic damage some elements of the oil industry while establishinga workable indu.,. and the White House that rapid de-try that could serve as the founda vetopment of synthetic oil Crom tion for expansion after the early shale would spare the country conproblems had been solved. tinued heavy dependence on foreign OTA analyzed the benefits and crude. consequences of four levels of shale The OTA acknowledged that a oil production, ranging from 100,000 crash program would yield more to one million barrels a day by 1990. domestic oil by 1990. But it said the It found that a 400,000.barrel target nation as a whole and particularly was probably the most realistic and Colorado, Utah and Wyaming, where practical. most of the high-grade shale is locat-ed would pay a high price in enviThe miUion-barrel program would ronmental destrUction, cost overlead to serious environmental prob runs and social disruption. !ems, threaten the West's scarce "While it appears that oil shale bas water resources, overwhelm the re a role in the long term." said Rep. gion's social, governmental and John Dingell (I).Mich.), chairman of economic institutions and siphon the House energy subcommittee and investment capital from other indus a member of the OT A board, "its utilitries, the OT A said. ty as a short-term panacea is abrogatThe OT A said most shale develop ed by theunthinltable environmenment would be centered in nonh tal consequences Usll a 200.~~rre.l-per ~u~adie~" ilfl4 4!0uld result )fl a $10 btl synlheic fuels study conclud~ Mon: ., day (or. larger) iJlduslfy;. within 10 I.loo r~ticUon. day. ;. Utah_ a~ Colorado,. wilh most o( years woul4 req'utre tin,mclal hwen-. I\ 100,000.baq~Fa-day project rould The Congr~ssional Office of Tech-. lhl e ~aU~n tt o:Shaln le rei:~~. are tivea. The m<>st effective would be prQcost fH billlon to cmnrlete by 1990. n.ology Assessment _in a 517-page r~': 00 g a e US e!IS en a very ducon tax,credits, purchase agree "I\ 15 percent rea, rate of return. port to the $epale Energy and Natural : large federal ca"."on, lpaded wllh b~: ments and price supports." ,. which la a higher rate than used for n~sources Committee, said the marke-: : lions for syntlleUc fuels develof~~nt., A 400,000-barrel ind~try could be mpre conventional investments, would tability of shale oil, which hinges some~ ~t ~'!m H!ttchi tu1 f:t built wlt~ su.b.ildies but wlt~out !;!ite~-increase the price of shale-oil syncrude what on sustained oil-price increase$;' repor en er ence 0 e ears a i;ive federal land leasing around two by fl-f billion (to $62 a' barrel) making could be a potentially fatal constraint. ~E,~( lul r ~he We5l lave re::o/11J. currently ~ctlve private proJec~, It non-competitive without subsidy The report said a 400,000-barrel-a .. .,.eren, ng11rs O aQy er e"'I three suspended ones and one new with the prices forecast for foreign day oil-shale industry could be created ~ral, r,rograms to develop. Westerr, project on private l~nds. it might c.._t oil," the report said. by 1990 with existing technology and lands. the annual U.S. oil-import bill ex-~ighty. percent of the richest oil without addltional leasing Qf federal House-~~nate_ contetees agree~ ~sf pect~d l,o hi~ ,oo_billion l~ rear~. by s~le.is on rederal lands. San Diego (CA) Daily Transcript San Jose (CA) Mercury Similar articles also appeared in: Rocky Mountain News (Denver, CO) Houston Post Sacramento (CA) Union Bridgeport (CT) Telegram Arkansas Gazette Logan (UT) Herald Journal Ashtabula (OH) Star Beacon Oil Daily (New York, NY) Roseburg (OR) News Review Santa Rosa (CA) Press Democrat Milwaukee Sentinel Idaho Free Press Riverside (CA) Enterprise Van Nuys (CA) Valley News Houston Chronicle Seattle (WA) Journal of Commerce Green Bay (WI) News-Chronicle Nevada State Journal (Reno, NV) Oshkosh (WI) Northwestern Columbus (OH) Citizen-Journal San Diego (CA) Daily Transcript PAGE 63 Salt Lake (UT) Tribune June 26, 1980 Synfuels Bill Small, Timid Step in Right Direction About six years ago a high level executive of one of the major oil companies told us that crude from oil shale would become economically practical when the world price of petroleum reached $18 a: barrel. The price of OPEC oil then was averaging $12 a barrel. Today OPEC oil has reached $32 a barrel and officials of that same company declineto speculate on what the world price of oil would have to be to make oil shale an economic practicality.. The closest they would come was to cite a report from the Congressional Office of Technology day of crude oil by 1987 and, ultimate ly, a scant 2 million barrels a day by 1992. Impressive? !',;ot really, those two million barrels amount to but one third of the oil presently imported into the country and just over 12 percent of the 16.5 million barrels of refined petroleum products presently supplied to the American public every day. This is a paltry effort when judged against the decade old statement contained in Mr. Welles' book. He wrote: Assessment which said, in part: "The statistics of its (oil shale's) .. A 15 percent real rate of return extent are almost beyond comprehen which is a higher rate than used for sion. If all of the shale in this one more conventional investments, deposit (the Utah, Colorado and would increase the price of shale oil Wyoming shale fields) were con syncrude by $14 billion to $62 a barrel verted to oil, the result would be, making it noncompetitive without according to a 1965 U .$. Geological subsidy with the prices forecast for Survey, study, eight trillion barrels, foreign oil." 20 times the world's proven reserves In 1970 Christopher J. Welles of ~etroleum and en?Ugh to supply She published a book dealing with the, United States, ~t its present (19.~) erratic and mostly unsuccessful efrate of consumption, for 2,000 years. forts to make the oil s~es of Ytah, The synfuels bill is a timorously Colorado and Wyommg v_1able short step in the right direction. source~ of ~troleum _energy; 1t w;~s providing a figurative drop in Ameri o.ptly titled The Elusive Bonanza. ca's oil bucket at an enormous cost to That bonanza still eludes. Even the taxpayer, $45 million a year from the most positive effort taken so far to now until 1992. That's more than a develop a synthetic fuels program in half-billion dollars spent with no the United St~tes, the Senate apassurance that 12 years from now proved energy subsidy bill, has the Americans will be any less dependent starkly limited objective of produc-on imported petroleum than they are in~. initially. only 500.000 barrels a today. PAGE 64 Grand Junction (CO) Sentinel June 24, 1980 Study forecasts i~pact~ of sbale r J ~"! --By Sheri Poe Bernard SentineJ staff writer The development of a !-million-bar rel-a-day oil shale industry in the Pi ceance and Uinta basins by 1990 could save the U.S. $10 billion annually in costs of oil imports, according to a re port released today by the Congres sional Office of Technolo~. However, the report said, the Colo rado Clean Air Act could prevent an oil shale industry of that magnitude from devefop_ing. "'l'he Clean Air Act is the only exist ing environmental law that could prevent the creation of a large industry," the report said. "It could limit production in Colorado to 400,000 barrels per day, although additional capacity could be installed in Utah," where the state air pollution laws are not as stringent. Emissions from the processing of shale into oil are expected to include sulfer oxide, nitrogen oxide, hydrocarbons, and fugitive dust, oil shale in dustry officials said. Exxon's Amos A. Plante said the re port's 400,000 barrel-a-day estimate may be misleading. "Until commercial. development of shale oil is under way," Plante said, "it will be impossible to get an accurate estimate of emissions. We won't know the effects on the environment until we start to grow." Exxon recently unveiled a plan for industry-wide development of shale which could result in the production of 8 million barrels of oil a day from the Piceance and Uinta basins. The federal report was done in conjunction with the Colorado School of Mines Research Institute, the Denver Research Institute, Pace Co. of Denver, and the Wyoming Research Corp. The plan for development of a 1-million barrel-a-day oil shale in dustry would benefit national security benefits and the region. the report said. But there also -would be major regional costs. A shortage of water could become a constraint, the report said, but went on to note there is enough surplus water in the Upper Colorado River Basin to support a 500,000 barrel-a-day in dustry up to the year 2000. "Surplus surface water could be available to support this industry until at least the year 2025," the report said, "after whlch water scarcities may limit all regional growth. Severe shortages could be eXl)erienced as much as 20 years sooner if the region develops more rapidly than expected. "Any large oil shale industry will need new reservoirs and diversion projects. Their environmental effects, though small overall, will be sub stantial in the areas where they are built." The report said a 2-million-barrel aday industry, while increasing re gional income by several billion dollars per year, could cause water losses resulting in a cost of about S25 million per year to farming and hydro electric power generation. States that will not directly share in the incre~sed regional income may also expenence some of these losses, the report continued. Housing and services to accomod~te the idustry's employees will requU"e maJor government involvment, the report said. Federal aid to businesses and municipalities involved in oil shale develoJ.>ment will be necessary for a 1milhon-barrel-a-day industry, it concluded. "To establish a 200,000 barrel-a-day or larger industry within 10 years would require financial incentives," it said. "The most effective would be production tax credits, purchase agreements, and price supports. The small firms ma:y need loan guarantees." PAGE 65 Pueblo (CO) Scar-Journal (June 25, 1980) Oil shale industry developmen-t _,,_ ------~----------could save coillltry $10 billion -. .Br StaNoarul. Qdeftatn the creation of a large industry. It C> Waalmtcm Bveau : could limit production in Colorado Washingtort A report issued to 400,000 barrels per day, although Tuesday by Ute Congressional additional capaci~y could be inOfflct!l~oi ,Tec-.Jqa_.~51.!Dent stalled in Utah." where the state said the development of an oil shale clean air act is not as stringent as industry. in the Green. River Forthe Colorado law. mation: of Colorado. Utah and Water also will become a con Wyoniiag could_ save this_ country straint in due course, the report ul) to $10. billion annually in charges pointed out. There is enough sur.-for imported oil. __ plus water ill the .Upper Colorado That is under tlM! assumption River Basin to support a 500,000 that a one milllot1 batnla-day b~l-a-day industry up to year industry woulct.be'in operation by 2000, the report stated. "Surplus 1990. The.estimate is based on the surface -could be available to fact that. imported oil would be support this industry until at least selling at $32 per barrel in 1990, year. after which water wicloubtedly a conservative scarcities may limit all regional estimate in view of recent in-growth. Severe shortages could be creases by the opec oil cartel~ experienced as much as 20 years The study was done by OPA with sooner if the region develops more the aid of such respected conrapidly than expected. tl'actors in the oil shale R&D field -"Any large oil shale industry will as the Colorado Sctioot ol Mines need new reservoirs and diversion ~search Institute, the Denver projects. Their environmental Research Institute, Pace Co. effects.. though small overall, will (Cameron Encmeers) of Deaver, be substantial In the areas where and W)'dming A.esea.rch Corp. they are built. The use of water for There would be great national a two million barrel-a-day oil shale : security benefits to the develOP:" industry, while increasing regional meat of an oil Ibale industry, anch income by several billion dollars the!'e would .. be great regional per year, could cause losses of ben-eflts. primar_ily in_ the opening about $25 million per year to farof new jobs. But there would also ming and. hydro-electric power be major regkmal costs. Aa.d there generation. St.ates that will not are constraints on-.luge-scale :oil directly share in the increased ~bale development, the -report regional income will experience made clear. some of these losses," the report Like Frant Cooley. of_ Meeker, stated. the report m~ke it plain that Clean Local impacts, particularly in Air laws rather than water Colorado's oil-shale-rich Piceance availability att the major coo-Crffk Bum area, could be severe, stnints oo oil shale development. particularly as there are only four The report stated, "The Clean Air communities in the. area with Act is the only existing enpopulations of more than S.000: ~amental law that could prevent Grand Junction and Craig in be s~n the OTA report stated. It indicated that massive government support would be needed to get an industry underway, largely because of its high risk in relation to other energy ventures. "To establish a 200,000 barrel-a day or larger industry within 10 years would require financial incentives," it said. "The most eifedive would be production tax credits, purchase agreements and price supports. The small firms nay nffd loan guarantffs. The net cnst of an effectively designed and administered incentives program could range from 60 cents to $1.40 ,:er barrel of shale oil syn-crude p-oduced," it said. U hydrogen is aided to shale oil, the resulting i:roduct "is a high-quality 11aterial. comparable with the best g:-ades of conventional crude," the. rtport stated. No shale oil technology is p:-esently ready for larite-scale Colorado, Vernal in Utah, and Rock Springs in Wyoming. These communities and other small towns in oil shale country could accommodate up to a 200,000 barrel-a-day industry "if presently plam1ed improvements and ex pansions are completed. Social and personal distress will occur unless active measures are taken for their prevention. A one million barrel-a day industry could not be accommodated without major government involvement and massive mitigation programs." the report stated. Major problems for local areas are seen as inflation regionally and stage of housing. Unfortunately, a bill to alleviate energy impacts on local com munities has been stalled in the Senate -the report is not expected to become available until June 24, or later and energy impacts have been handled quite differently by two committffs. Assuming that the bill does pass the Senate this year in some form not yet determined, Sen. Gary Hart, D-Colo.. said recently there is no assurance that any version of energy impact area aid assistance will pass the House. This is so, he pointed out, even though the In terior Department has announced twice in the past month, on May 27 and again 011 June 19, that it plans to resume its prototype leasing program and plan for a permanent oil shale leasing program which could come as early as 1981 and 1983 respectively. Whether or not the new syn-fuels legislation that passed Congress this week will be enough to get an oil shale industry going remains to commercialization, but two -modilied in-situ and above ground retorting to process mined shale -are ready for shale up to "modular demonstration projeets or pioneer plants," the report stated. Although there are several com panies interested in oil shale development, most appear to be a waiting for new federal leasing of publicly held oil shale lands, land exchanges or other government incentives. it stated. PAGE 66 West faces tradeoffs on oil shale -DesereC News W11sblnat,on Bureau WASHINGTON The congrusional Office of Tecbnoloa Assessme.nt. says oil shale could provide 400,000 barrels a day of petroleum equivalent in less than 10 years using existing technoloc. but that programs to lessen social and economic impacts will have to be accelerated to avoid disruptions in the lifestyle of Utah. Colorado, and Wyoming. where most U .& shale deposits are located. OTA said oil shale could heip ease the t;.S. dependence on foreign oil and improve this country's trade balance. but "tough tradeoffs" would be required among economic. environmental. and other objectives. Private companies have also sue,ested recently that oil shale was about to become an economic source of energy. A study by Exx011 tJSA reported that shale oil now appean to be competitive with imported crude, and recommended that large-scale refineries be built. starting in Colorado. Cost of a 15 million barrel per day capability would exceed $3 trillion Exxon estimated. The OTA ret,Ort suggested that 408 billion barrels could be WT'Ulll from ~tern shale n!Serves, two and a half times the estimated oil in Saudi Anbia. enough to supply current U.S. consumption of oil for Si years. Each million bal't'els per day of production from shale would reduce t; .S. spending for foreign oil by $10 billion OT A estimated, Members of the Technology Assessment board were mixed in their view and shale production. Sen. Omn Hatch. R-Utah. said he feared "any crash federal protram to develop western lands." Rep. John Dingell. D-Mich chairman of the House subcommittee on energy and power, said in the sbort term the environmental consequences of intensive shale production are "untbmkable. Congress has alredy set in motion some shale production by legislation coveting incentives to shale and other forms of "synthetic'" fuels. OTA estimated that surplus surface water will be available in the west to support a 500.000 ban-el per day production industry if distribution systems are built, and if growth in the west does not increase beyond current predictions. Most of the shale industry would be located at fint in northwestern Colorado, where the richest shale formations are found. Two Utah leases are not now being developed. OT A noted. The agency estimated that a 200.000 ban'el per day ;>roduction couid be attained \\ithout "much difficulty to the communities :n the west. Deseret News (Salt Lake City, UT) June 25. 1980 PAGE 67 DATE TIME NETWORK F'ROGRAM June 24, 19 80 3 : 0 0 -3 : 0 6 AM MDT ABC Informational News Tim O'Donnell reporting: ACCOUNT NUMBER 6297Y At their Venice Summit, President Carter and other allied leaders agreed the West must reduce its reliance on imported oil by expediting development of alternate energy sources particularly coal and nuclear power. And Congress is close to final approval of the crash program to help that goal along by developing sythetic fuel. This would include extraction of a substance similar to crude oil from oil shale. There's plenty of that beneath the western U.S. but a Congressional study shows that such development would bring mixed results. The director of the study was Dr. Audrey Burn. Burn: The oil shale industry could benefit the nation's economy and security and help ease the liquid fuel supply problem)but the rapid deployment that a large industry, say five hundred thousand barrels per day or more by 1990, would entail some serious economic, environmental and social risks. O'Donnell: Burn is with the Office of T~chnoloiy Assessment. Her study also found the Clean Air Act may prohibit production of more than four hundred thousand barrels of shale oil a day in Colorado, one of three western ~t~tcs ',fith ~iz::ible reser,,,.es of oil shale. PAGE 68 Platt's Oilgram News (New York, TI) June 24, 1980 ~HNOLOGY OFFICE SEES SHALE OIL ; REACHING 400,000 8/D BY 1990 Washington 6/23-The U .s. shale oil industry could achieve a production level of 400,000 b/d by 1990 with present technology, leasing and environmental rules, according to a major report from the Office of Technology Assessment. The only major problem would be social and economic impacts on the production region. The report found that the present number of federal leases and private shale holdings would be sufficient to reach 400,000 b/d if currently planned federal subsidies are used to ensure an average rate of return of 15%. OT A said the most effective incentives would be tax credits, purchase agreements and price supports, with loan guarantees for small firms. The net federal subsidy should average 60 cts/bbl to $1.40/bbl. Expanded Leasing is Essential OT A warned that if subsidies aren't available, several currently planned projects would be suspended and a major new leasing program would be needed to lay the basis for development. At the same time, the report said production above 400,000 b/d would be impossible under any circumst.1.nces unless the federal government releases more high-grade shale land for leasing. OT A calculated that current high oil prices will be the key factor in making production of shale oil possible. It warned, however, that this assessment was based on current cost estimates that investment of about $14-billion would be needed to set up a 400,000 b/d industry. The report also said projections were based on continuation of oil price rises at rates similar to those now prevailing. Other findings of the report: -Existing clean air rules would perm it up to 400,000 b/d of shale oil production in Colorado but would hamper industry growth beyond that level. -There is enough surplus surface water available in the shale region to permit output of at least 500,000 b/d of shale oil through the year 2000. -Communities in the shale region could accommodate a 200,000 b/d shale industry without much difficulty, but industry growth beyond that would require outside aid to lessen social and economic impacts. -The high-grade shale reserve in the western U.S. could ultimately produce 400-billion bbl of shale oil. PAGE 69 Chemical & Engineering News June 30, 1980 Restraint Jrged in developing oil shale An oil shale industry producing 400,000 bbl per day could be created by 1990 using existing technologies and without additional leasing of federal land. But it would create so cial and ecpnomic problems if current programs to overcome these problems aren't accelerated. That's the gist of a new study made by the Office of Technology Assess m~nt at tlie req-Qest of the Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources. The study, notes Sen. Orrin'G .. Hatch (R.-Utah), a member of the: OT A Congressional Board, lends credence to fears in the West regarding the inherent dangers of any crash federal programs to develop western lands. "Utah and Colorado, with most of the nation's oil shale reserves," Hatch says, "are looking at the business end of a very large federal cannon, loaded with billions for synthetic fuels de velopment." In its assessment, OT A focused on four 1990 development targets: 100,000; 200,000; 400,000; and 1 mil lion bbl per day. It studied these in terms of technology, economics, resource acquisition, environment, water availability, and socioeco nomics. OT A notes six objectives for es tablishing an oil shale industryobjectives held by disparate groups and that will influence the ultimate political decision of whether, how, and to what extent to develop oil shale: To gain information and expe rience to position the industry for rapid deployment. To maximize energy supplies in light of potential economic and na tional security problems. To minimize federal promotion by allowing an industry to develop in response to market pressures and opportunities. To phase development to evaluate potential impacts and design and test controls that would maxi mize ultimate environmental information and protection. To proceed at a gradual pace to maximize the integrity of the social environment. To achieve an efficient and cost-effective energy supply system in which the industry would be posi tioned for long-term profitable op erations. Rating the four levels of development ~ainst these objectives gives a good sense of the trade-offs among objectives that inevitably will be re quired in establishing policy. For ex ample, OT A gives the 400,000 bbl per-day industry the highest rating in terms of positioning the industry for rapid development. At/ this level, a wide variety of technologies and sites would be evaluated and substantial technical, environmental, and eco nomic information obtained. The 1 million bbl-per-day level is rated lower because its accelerated ~onstruction schedule would preclude precommercial experiments and probably would result in less technically efficient plants. Although OTA doesn't specificallv say so, rts ratings seem to indica~ that the400,0JO bbl-per-day level of de\elopment would achie\e an opti.1 mum mix of trade-offs. d ---...._ I ---- PAGE 70 Energy Resources & Technology June 27, 1980 OTA REC0tfENOS 400,000 BPD OIL SHALE INDUSTRY BY 1990 The Office of Technolo Assessment this week issued a report recommending a 400,000 arrel per day oil. shale industry by 1990, noting that such an industry could be created by utilizing existing technologies and without leasing additional Federal lands, The report also said, however, that boomtowns would likely result from that scenario if current efforts to prepare for rin oil shale industry are not accelerated, OTA's Phil Robinson, who worked on the study, told ERT population in the oil shale regions would increase by 35-40% under the 400,000 bbl/day scenario. The OTA study notes that creation of an industry larger than 400,000 bbl/day would result in significant economic, environmental and social problems. For example, the study predicts that establishment of a 500,000 bbl/day industry could increase population in a few Colorado counties by as much as seven times. Hyperinflation could also set in within the industry, Robinson said, because "when you go over the 400,000 bbl/day figure, you are straining the industry and you start running into design and materials problems." Plant costs are likely to rise from 30-40% if you go above that level, he added. The boomtown admonition apparently was leveled at states that have built up hefty reserves from Federal leasing sales, oil shale company royaltJes and severance tax earnings which could be used for planning community growth. The state of Colorado has yet to spend some $90-mlllion it now has in such a reserve, Robinson said, and in order to use money effectively to stop the boomtown phenomenon it would be wise to start spending those funds in the near future. PAGE 71 DOE Solar Conservation PAGE 73 DOE's Solar, Conservation Programs Hit by GAO-like OL4 'Management' Report / Engineering Times July 1980 By J. T. Kane Editor So, as everybody knows, Congress set up its own thinktank back in the 1970s and named it the Office of Tech nology Assessment (OTA), "whose basic function is to help legislators anticipate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological changes." But as these things go on Capitol Hill, a basic function" is whatever the majority party of Congress says it should be. OTA's perception of its role as an advisory arm of the Congress has ranged across the spectrum of technology applications. With each new formaJ assessment report, OTA looks more and more like a twin of that other congressional investigatory arm-the General Accounting Office (GAO). The latest example of this GAO OTA twinning process is an OTA critique of DOE's conservation and solar energy programs. The main finding of this critique is: "A lack of direction and leadership by DOE management is hampering the progress of the DOE Conserva tion and Solar Energy (C&:SE) pro grams. Many C&:SE programs suffer from inadequate planning, frequent and debilitating management changes and reorganizations, and other internal difficulties, although some are doing well and are staffed by many dedicated and competent people." The general style and approach of the report is virtually indistinguisha ble from a typical GAO report, many of which have also written on various aspects of DOE, including solar and conservation. Just in case some readers might miss this similarity, the last page of the OTA report contains a handv list of 19 related GAO repons on DOJ:: and national energy issues. In its zeal to "help legislators antici pate and plan for the positive and negative impacts of technological change/ OTA comes down hard on DOE for not really accepting and meeting the national goals for solar energy as put forth by the Adminis tration in its 1979 Domestic Policv Review and endorsed in subseq'uent messages to Congress. In the course of this particular criti cism. the OTA assessors state that "Conservation investments currentlv represent the most economic oppor tunity for dealing with the energy crisis. Twinning or Cloning Long-time Washington observers whose mail regularly brings GAO re ports across their desks mav see twin ning escalated to cloning in this OTA report paragraph: "Critical C&SE management prob lems include lack of both procedures and funding for program evaluation, extraordinarv delays in processing contracts and filling staff vacancies, changing management and frequent reorganization, insufficient coordina tion between solar and conservation incentives, and difficulties in defining and implementing commercializa tion' efforts." GAO's publication stock rooms must contain at least a thousand re ports published over the past 20 vears in which the language and general emphasis on management evaluation are practicallv identical. If that one paragraph is not enough of a sample, how about this OTA gem on current DOE management and policy problems: "C&:SE also exhibits a number of institutional problems in such areas as coordination of energy policy and action within the Federal Government. assistance to the states, commercialization of solar and conservation technologies, and questions of competing or conflicting roles among var ious units of the organizationheadquarters offices, Regional Of fices, the Regional Solar Energv Centers, the Solar Energy Research Institute, and the :-.lational Labora tories. If this doesn't sound like something PAGE 74 right out of a Government Account ing Office and published over the signature of the Comptroller General of the L'nited States, what does? Continuing its review of specific DOE programs, OTA concludes: .. Wind energy is a nearer term technology than DOE appears to be lieve; photovoltaics mav not meet stated goals unless DOE acts more aggressivelv; biomass management should be tightened and the staff augmented; transportation should reevaluate its efforts in both advanced engines and electric vehicles; and solar active, passive, and conservation technologies must be integrated to achieve optimum energy use in new and existing residential and commer cial buildings." Limited Staff Noting that the C&SE Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation is limited to 13 professionals, OTA declares this to be entirely inadequate to perform the long-range, in-depth studies re quired." OTA further recommends that C&SE "needs to develop the capability to determine what it can accomplish for the country, to make sound policy and program decisions to reach these objectives, and to keep the programs moving steadily toward the goals in the face of pressures to alter course in ways not necessarily in the national interest." In commenting on engineering field tests and public demonstrations in the market place, OTA advises that: "Public exhibitions should feature only proven, reliable, cost-effective technologies. They should assure that equipment is certified and installation is done correctlv. Strict selection criteria should be established to as sure that a large number of builders can participate, that locations are cho sen for high public exposure, and that a few large projects do not dominate the budget." Turning to the problem of speeding up solar use, OTA argues that effec-tive strategies must be based on an accurate understanding of current market conditions. For example, the nature and extent of capital invest ment in solar heating systems would be a useful piece of information to people responsible for accelerating the use of solar svstems. Such re search is not being done within DOE at this time." Determined to leave no stone unturned in its role as management con sultant to DOE (and/or Congress), OTA reviews the state energy pro gram situation and reco1;:mends rh_ac: l !It' ..)ld.LC4LlH..,J i5, ...__...._, ... ..,._. u.i.4VU Program, the Supplemental State En ergv Conservation Program, and the Energy Conservation Program. and the Energy Extension Service should be combined into a single program to facilitate their management bv the state energy offices as well as b\DOE." And for the edification of those who are bullish on electric vehicles. OTA informs us that the EV's poten tial for petroleum savings will not be realized unless used in large num bers." So there, DOE. If vou don't shape up, Congress or some other federal entitv will just have co create and fund another investigatorv arm. GAO should be happv to help gee it off the ground bv furnishing an organization chart and perhaps loaning a few kev ,caffers to get the report writing process under wav as soon as possible. PAGE 75 The Washington Post June 11, 1980 Hill Energy Experts Hit DOE .1;1rograms By John IL Berry management does not really ear report an~ J>OE programs generally WallhlnaLuo l'ost Stan Writer about the C&SE p,;ogram-. and that inclu.dea not only ~lar coUectora an Congress Office of TechnoJogy_ 1...the quality of management bu been the roof of a house to heat wate1 or ses~ment issued a scathing critique of inadequate, aa well 11 trianalent, .. it the house itself, bqt also wtnd, hydrothe Department of Energy's conservadded. electric a~d ocean thermal energy tlqn and solar energy programs y'ester~ ./ The report, requested by the House systems and the use of 'biomasi."-a day, saying the program! t. "do not 'Committee on Science and "rechuology, catcbaU for everything from grain or appear adequate" to meet DOE's own was compiled by two advlsory commitwood to organic garbage dlat ean goals. tees 'With representaUve1 from a wide used as a source of epergy-along OTA specifically criticized long de range of organtz11:t1on1-Jncludlng oil with the direct generation of elec lnys in the department'a processing of companies, electric utilities, envh-on-, 1 trlclty from sunUght In a pmcess 1equests for hh-ing new staff and Jn mental groupa and unlversltiea among known as photovoltaics. leltlng contracts associated with the others. As an example of a lack of ade conservatio!' a_nd solar energy pro-It'~ was crltlcal of wb~t It called quate planning and direction, the re: g_rarns, calling 1l "a nearly impassible DOE failure to set priontiea among port cited the goals for solar energy s1luatlon." vario' consenatloo and solar pro-use announced by President Carter "Not only are important projects de. grams 'to ensure that the total relast year. Part of that total involves layed, but high-quality people and sources are, be_lng apportl~ned to production 1,1f 1.7 quadrllllon BTU's companies may not be willing to wait achieve the maxtmum result. And It worth of energy from wind by the so long," the report declared. stated flatly, "DOE bu DO consistent 2000. Total energy use Jn the United '"fhere Is a pervasive belief within fmethod for evaluaUng program pel'-States last year was less than 80 d ormance.,. "quads an outside of DOE that senior DOE Solar energy for the purpose of thl -An adequately detailed plan would specify bow many machines (wind. mills) of varying sizes would be re quired to produce 1.7 quads, the in dustrial capacity over time to pi.oduce and deploy them, matel"ial and capital requirements, the schedule for tech nofoglcal improvements .. and e:.li mates of when and how nonhprdwarerelated market barriers can be evaluated and addressed," the report auid, "Such a plan would delineate a clear path to the desfred goals, ineludlng what must be done this year as pari of the overall effort," U continued. "Not only would such a plan provide clear direction to the programs, but it would also provide a means for Congress to evaluate 1nograms' progress and peed for funding Accordint: to the report, little ot that bas happened. PAGE 76 ... THE CHnservatioa research and develop ment projects to fund, "there are indications they may not be selecting the major conservation opportunities." The industrial ofiice should improve its selection process and devote more effort to mating inefficient, low-temperature equip ment (such as distillers arid. evaporators) more energy. efficient, and to pll1'SUinl largescale industrial process changes rather than small-scale projects, according to the report. To augment its conservation demonstration programs, OTA said, the industrial office should expand its successful pilot porgram of Energy Analysis Diagnostic Centers (EADC) into a full nationwide industrial energy extension service. Currently there are three energy analysis centers that typically spend about 10 ~ys collecting energy consumption data at an industrial site and analyzing cost-benefit ratios for various industrial conservation investments. ''The rate of aceeptance of EADC recommendations for major capital investments for conservation in industry averages about 50 percent." OTA reported. "and usually provides savings 10 times as great as the federal in: vestment in the extension service itseit. On the subject of c01eneration, OT A said the extension service would be especially he1:Pful _for giving industries the financial. legal and technical assistance they need when contem1>lat1ng cogeneration investments. The federal government should also work to achieve a consistent policy allowing the use of oil and natural gas for higbly-.fficient steam turbine anq die.sel cogerieration systems. The OT A report was most critical of the solar; biomass, ocean thermal and wind energy programs at DOE. "Some of tfte programs are doing as well as might be expected, but no coherent theme permeates the entire office and guides the direc tions and pace of the various programs." Budget Altaclcad The Office of Conservation and Solar Energy was hit with another round of criticism last week when Rep. Richard L. Ot tinger ( D-N. Y. > held a hearing to blast Energy Secretary Charles Duncan for not devoting enough resources to renewable resources in his proposed five-year budget plan. Ottinger said an internal plann ing memo showed that the frac tion of the DOE budfet devoted to solar and conservatJOD decreases from 24 percent in fiscal 1981 to 20 percent during the fiscal 1982-36 time frame, while fossil fuel and nuclear funding levels increased. "This raises serious questions about the Administration's com mitment to a strong, effective federal conservation and solar energy program," Ottinger charged. Duncan argued that budget figures are not an accurate gauge of the Administration's commit ment to a particular energy technology. He said some technologies, such as solar, simply _require less governme~t fundinJ to demonstrate their viabihty than do advanced nuclear and fossil fuels research, and he said the private sector in creasingly ~an ~ted to contribute to the vtabtlity of solar and conservation technologies. But Ottinger cited the critical OT A report, which said, "There is a pervasive belief wi~in and outside of DOE that semor DOE management does not really care about (conservation and solar energy) programs ... Duncan replied, "The opposite is the case." He maintained the Carter Administration is. indeed committed to giving conservation and solar energy top priority for government help. Energy User News June 23, 1980 PAGE 80 Duncan Def ends The Washington Post DOE Solar Work June 13, 1980 ~_;;:;/ By John :'.VI. Berry Wasllinscon Poa atat! Writer Energy Secretary Charles Duncan defended his de::;,artment s efforts to spur conservation and development of solar energy yesterday but didn't re spond directly to critics who claim the administration isn't spending enough money to meet its own goals for ei-Secretary Duncan Def ends DQE on Solar Energy Efforts SOLAR, From Cl ther. able for all DOF.: programs "in a time Citing President Carter's commitof budget restruint." ment last year "to derive 20 percent of all the ene~ we use from the sun" in the year 2000, Rep. Richard L. Ottinger (D-N.Y.) told Duncan at a House Science and Technology sub committee heating, "The record of the No member of the subcommittee _ever specifically asked th" energy secretary whether present spending lev els are adequate to meet President Carter's announced l!oal, and he didn't volunteer an answer. past year. and t.he pro;;:nosis for the Duncan took: strong exception. howfuture. has been an immediate and ever, to a report issued this wee!c by continuing betrayal of this committhe Office of Technology Assessment ment." that declared: "There is a pervasive Ottim!er said recent .rtudies by the belief within and outside of DOE that Gener:.l .\ccou11ting Office>, Congress' senior DOE management does not Otfk~ ol Technology Assessment, as really care about the (conservation weIT .. the Department of Energy's and solar energy) programs .... own co.w;~ryation and solor energy di, When Rep. Allen E. Ertel (D-Pa.) vision. '*''"aP~cated "the level of fund: questioned why DOE wasn't doing in-. is ~!'.)! helow that needed to more to promote energy conservation, acnieve t'...\I ~oal."' -Duncan heatedly replied, "Maybe you Duncan. mreply, stre!sed bis depart.need a new secretary. ment's recerlt ,=reation of a "dvnamic "I personally am doing as good a and flexible management process" for job on _conservatio~ ~s I know how," handling support of cons David to re-evaluate his administration and, in the course of his soul-searching,_decided to fire a lot of Cabinet members, including Schletinger. Meanwhile, the solar program wa being starVed. At the Department or Energy, people will tell you this was by design of the powers that be. One of those powers is Undersecretary of Energy John Deutch, whose domain at Energy included solar programs and: who, according to soutCff within the department, had a private agreement with James McIntire of the Office of Manatement and Budget. The agreement was that McIntire' would simply trim the solar budget with Deutch's private eonaent. Deutch made a powerplay last spring and is back in private life as a reSUlt; nowever, no one at Ule DOt: 1s in a position to push solar power in a meaningful way since they now make policy at the White House. So they can put Duncan onthe "hot seat" everyday, of the week and it will not make much. difference. To members of Congress, the really exasperating thing is that the Carter administration has consistently failed to fund the programs Congress care. fully put into the Natioaal Energy Act '. passed several years ago. This is particularly true in the area of solar application. It means that, if we meet Carter's goal of 20 percent reliance on solirby the year 2000, it will be in spite of him rather than because of him. So maybe C.uter, himself, is the one who should be put in the "hot seat'' to answer the key questions. PAGE 82 San Francisco Examiner-Chronicle June 15, 1980 \ Carter not so hot for solar power now By Jonathan Dedmon Newhouse ;l{ews Serviee WASHINGTON -Administration officials continue to profess a strong interest in ruu:nessin-g the sun's power. but there iS a growmg feeling that the Energy Department's heart is being won by coal. synthetic fuels and nuclear power. Solar advocates note that solar power and -eonservation are bearing the brunt of cuts in energy programs. And an internai Energy Department budget plan that recently was made public calls for increased spending for nuclear power and fossil fuels at the expense of solar over the next five years. The Congressional Office of T.~.!*lotogy A$Sessm~t this week charged: 'here is persuasive belief within and outside the Energy Department that senior management doesn't really care about the conservation and solar energy pro-grams." The Carter administration's professed commitment to solar energy and conservation is a "fraud on the Congress and the American public." says Rep. Richard Ottinger, DN.Y a strong solar power advocate who heads a House subcommittee on energy development. And Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., seeldng the Den cratic presidential nomination, charged this week that Carter is "clinging to the obsolete energy priorities of the 1900s while rejecting the energy paths of the future.~ Richard Munson. director of the Solar Lobby, says his group "is outraged that the Carter administration has abandoned its commitment to solar and conservation as the cornerstone of this nation's enernpolicy." The feeling that the Carter admmistration is abandoning solar en~ is the result of a series of budget moves culminating during the past month with the release of a memo from Energy Secr.etary Charles Duncan outlining preiimina.ry spending proposals for the five years. It shows increases of more than $2 billion for nuclear breeder reactor research and storage of nuclear waste materials, $500 million for commercialization of oil shale and more than $200 million for coai. At the same time. money for solar energy would be cut more than $250 million from earlier plans for spending over the next five years. One major cut is $150 million that bad been earmarked for procurement of photovoltaic cells iwhich directly convert sunlight into electricityl for federal buildings and demonstration projects. Alcohol fuels also would be cut substanti.aily. The Duncan memo follows President Carter's reduction earlier this year of .his proposed solar and conservation p~ s.500 million, in an attempt to balance the federal budget. '.'.tanv solar advocates see these moves as a turnaround from carter's announced goal of deriving 20 percent of the nation's energy from the sun by the year ml. "'Thls stroni~ federal commitment to solar enercy will be sustained vear after vear after vear: Cartersaid in 1979 while delf.l.GY. ~: ment (OTA) held out the hope that tnemlcroscoplc, color-coded chips developed by 3M could prove a law enforcement boon. At tbe same time; however, OT A, a research arm or Congress, raised cautionary flags similar to those that, In years pasl, have persuaded lawmakers to hold back from approving a law that would, among other things, require mixing tagganls with the black and smokeless powders as well as with more potent expl;,slvesC!)mmonly used tor gun ammuntllon. That Is a requirement lhat has uroused the Ire or the National Rifle But, the report adds, usefulness ugalnst sophisticated terrorisls or professional criminals Is quite diHu ent, since they could resort lo steal Ing explosives, smuggling untagged bombs from abroad or skillfully pre paring their own explosives. Again, by qualifying lls conclusions, the OTA appurcnlly has provided ammunlllon lo lhe NRA to help block the legislation. Said an NRA lobbyist last week,"We think lhe ... report has born out lhal the BATF hasn't properly handled this. and unless It can be proven safe and proven ,~ore useful than It has to date, it would be a risk to our members and a waste or money." But the OT A reporl was also read fu vorably by proponents of taggants. In a joint slalemcnl, Sens. Abraham II ih\l"uff i fi ,. (\ '" 1 l'Uf r\1'1"\pl'r'"' t Assoclallon (NRA), a potent lobby on with two different explosives under Capitol Hill. Whtie careful to back certain contrived conditions. the law and order objectives of the j police groups that have endorsed Tile asserlion about testing makes taggant legislation, the NRA argues one pro-taggant law enforcement of that scle'1tlflc evidence as yet has flcial, well, testy. not dispelled Its concerns over the safety ot mixing 3M's seven-layered A. Alley Peterson, special asslslanl partlc'!s with gunpowder. for research and development In lhe U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and dn that point, the OTA report agrees, Firearms (BATF), has been pushing saying, "There ls. little el(ldence reI taggants ror years, bused on exlen gardlng (taggant) safety ... as test-I slve testing under contract by lht: Ing has only recently been Initiated Aerospace Corp. and no results have yet been report ed." In parllcular, OTA expressed con cern about a chemical reaction produc ed when tagganls were mixed who chairs the Government AUairs Commltlee, and Jacob Javils, R-N.Y., urged approval of lhe tagging' pro posal In part because of lbe rc: porl's assertion that "each elemeat of risk to the bomber will decreaSP the likelihood of his actually co1milling the bombing." i: The Maryland bombing cuse ht,s been helpful to those muking sucjh argumenls. The explosives, lagged !IS part or a BATF national pilol project, were traced lo a suspect. Then, IU~ tuggants were admUted by the tri~I Judge as evidence and thus hctr,11&.1 oblaln a c1)nvicllon. By lhe same loken, the BAT,...'s Pe terson points to the unsolved bom~ lng of 0cc. 29, 1975, at New York~ l.aGuardla Air1>ort In which 11 1>cbpl~ were killed and dozens were ltijured. Desr,1le more th.in $ IOO,OOo SJ)CIII Oil labor.ilory lc'ilS aud 111orj! He challenged OTAs findings, claim Ing that In one lnslance the research ers used tagganlli In quantllies lhal are .. a thousand times the concentra tions that we recommend." _...---..__ lhan a million hours of other 11Ives11galive efforts, lawmen still don1 1 know lhe type of exI>tosive used, 1;1 alone who mlghl have Iwsscsscu it. Presumably, 3M's lags woulany hus already slartell to sell taggaols lo manufaclurc.-s anxious for 11 way to identify lheir product when llabilily disI1utes arise. One 3M customer in llouslon nwnl) factu.-es precision 1>arts for oil-llrill lng rigs. Since Ille machinery may lnduaed that powder manufacturers put tagganta in all guzq)OW'der and explosives. Con gress included the propoeal In ita Omaibua Antiterrorism Act of 1979. The proposal drew fire from the NRA, bowever, wbich challenged the viabWty and cost of tfle taggants program. Specifically, the NRA charged the Bureau with performing lnvallcUests on the safety of taggants. "The Bureau's testing wu grossly inadequate," said NRA lobbyist, Ran dy Bowman. "There is firm evidence that taganta caused 1oa of stabWty In one type of smokeless powder." "The Bureau has been claiming the testing ( on taggants) has been done," Bowman said. "And the NRA is saying flat-out that the testing Is not com plete." The NRA threw enougb verbal darts at the taggants program to prompt three members of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee Sens. Abraham Ribic:Gff, ~oan., Jacob K. Javits, R-N.Y. and Ted Steveps, RAlaska -to ask Concreu' TfrnoJMv !.S!f'"1Drl for aa DdelMl]aenuc\lily. So far, Stevena is the only senator among the three to challenge the safe ty of the taggants. Not only does he question their safety but aparently he is wondering about the effectivenesa of the program. Javita aide Alan BeMett called the program "an atremeiy ueful one." He pointed to a Baltimore, Md., truck bo!Dbing in wbich taQants clued in police to the man who had commit ted the crime. The man had since been arrested and is awaitinc sentencing, Bennett said. The senators' requested study, which would have resolved some of these issues. was scheduled for com pletion six months ago. Today, OTA is still not ready with the atudy. Each proposed draft bas met with opposition from members of the OTA's advisory panel One staff assistant on the Govern mental Affairs Committee said: "Stevena, aa vice-chairman of the OTA, has put pressure on the agency to water down ita report." "Coasequendy," the staffer said. "OTA has baclced down from the fine draftitialued." The Stevena aide said the senator "don't have anytbinc to do witb the cbanging of the draft." Now botb sides on the tagganta issue claim the latest OTA draft substantiates their position. "The OTA baa ended up really strad-, dllng the issue," the Governmental Af fairs staffer said. "Almollt every '"\ paragraph is followed by a paragraph that negates it." Once the OTA report is made public, various. federal agencies and private concerns are poised for a frenzied lob bying effort on behalf of the taggants propoeal. Supporting the plan are the Bureau of Alcoho!. Tobacco Firearms; Airline Pilots and Airline Transport Associations and International Aaodation of Chim of Police. Currently, the NRA. gunpowder manufacturers and Stevena are ready to oppose it. As one F!rearma Bureau official said, "It'.1 geinl to be a fight and it's going to be vicious." 1 Yakima (WA) Herald Republic April 2, 1980 PAGE 95 TAGGii'>iG A~ EXPLOSIVE ISSlJ_t; By Robert .'rt. Bar1ell -: Well, once again the gun-control advocates in Washington have fooled the national press into distorting the news in their favor. Only this time. it could literally blow up in the media's face. The latest scenario of suckering the press into reporting just one side of a story-the pro-gun contro! side-happened just a few weeks ago. If the other side isn't told soon, unsuspecting consumers may be inju_red ... or worse ... by potentially unsafe ammunition and gunpowder. This could happen because of so-called gunpowder markers-or taggants_:.the government wants to put into ammunition to help trace criminals. The national media has been tricked into reporting these taggants as "safe," when in fact they may have been connected witll an explosion at a 3M Corp. plant months ago. Recently the Congressional Office of Technq_lggy Asse~t (OT A) released a report on the use of taggants in gunpowder. OT A assumed the press would at least read the report before writing stories about it. Well, that turned out to be a bad assumption. Af ter the stories started appearing in the national press, it was obvious that reporters diJn't study the report. Instead, these stories sounded very much like a press release mysteriously tacked onto the back of the OT A reports handed out to the media. The press release-which by the way wasn't signed so as to identify its author or authors-essentially said that OT A found taggants to be a good idea. Well, the SPOTLIGHT traced the press release back to its authors ... and found Sens. ,Abraham Ribicoff (O-Conn.) and Jacob Javits (R-N.Y.)-two w1::ll-known gun-confiscation advocates. The senators' release said that OT A found that taggants could be good markers for gunpowder to help police track down and capture criminals. Then they had the unsigned press release passed out to reporters and the national wire services. In turn. stories began appearing in newspapers all over the country telling the public, gun owners and gunpowder manufacturers that taggants could be a "useful law enforcement tool." I might laugh this one off as a perfect example of how elected officials dupe the media into reporting just one side of the issue. However, what Ribicoff and Javits did might very well be more than just good fun. For example, as reported by The SPOTLIGHT last January, and by OT A in its report, gunpowder taggants may be extremely hazardous. Taggants are supposed to be microscopic markers made from inert material included in the production of gun powder. Well; in a couple of incidt:nts already, including raggants in the gunpowder making process has produced unexplained discoloration and bubbling in the powder. The 3M Corp. noticed this not long ago-just in time for the rompany to get employees out of a plant before it exploded. Experiments show that gunpowder with taggants might blow up in your face. Why wasn't this reported in the press? Perhap,; Sens. Ribicoff and Ja\its can explain. Manning (IA) :1onitor :-!ay 15, 1980 Similar articles also appeared in: St. Marys (KS) Star Kirksville (MO) Express and ~cws Vinton (LA) ~ews Hutchinson (KS) Record Southwest Virginia Enterprise White River Journal (Des Arc, AR) PAGE 96 Tagging plan shows flaws A report by the Congressional Of fice of Technology Assessment (OTA) has found safety problems and an in adequate testing program in the government's efforts to develop "tag gants" for commprcial explosives. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms had proposed the tag gant program, in which mic.rochip particles are introduced into certain commercial explosives, as a means of apprehending criminal bombers. Using record-keeping procedures, BATF officials have claimed. a re covered '"tag" might provide inform ation on t11e last legal purchasers vf explosives which are criminally misused, a list :vhich may number in the thousands. However, only a small fraction of the explosivei produced annually would be tagged. The National'. Rifle Association. which represents over l. 7 million members, had opposed the tagging program on the grounds that the tag gants had not received thorough safe ty testing, were unduly expensive and would be ineffective as a means of combating criminal bombings. Two of the materials proposed for tagging were smokeless and black powders. The NRA felt that the potential safety hazards to the users of these materials, handloaders and muzzle loading enthusiasts respectively, far outweighed any claims by the BATF that the taggants could act as any sort of criminal deterrent. The OTA report found chemical re actions between the tags and one type of smokeless powder. Another reaction was found between the tairs and one high explosive. Much of the te$t1mony which BATF officials had previously given the Congress on the safety and testing programs concerning taggants was seemingly contradicted by the OT.-\ study. The OTA report also cited a number of countermeasures to the tag ging process by which a criminal bomber could circumvent the plan. Neal Knox, Executive Director of the NRA Institute for Legislative Action said, "The OT A report clearly shows that the BATF has given false and misleading information to the Congress. I have never heard vf a government agency so distorting the truth in an attempt to influence the Congress." Calumet City-Burnham (IL) Econo~is: June 11, 1980 Si~ilar articles also appeared in: Union City (PA) Times Leader Grant (NE) Tribune Sentinel Newkirk (OK) Herald Journal Hinton (WV) Leader Jackson (XS) Enterprise Glenwood-Thornton (IL) Economist Riverdale (IL) Pointer Economist Glen Ullin (ND) Times Crossville (TN) Chronicle 3yron (IL) Northern Ogle Tempo East San Diego Press Durand (IL) Gazette Winnebago (IL) News Rockton (IL) Herald Pecatonica (IL) News Warner (OK) County News Tulsa (OK) Southside Times Elizabethtown (PA) Chronicle South Holland (IL) Homewood-Floosmoor Economist South Holland (IL) Economist Pointer Glendive (MT) Ranger Review Post Falls (ID) Tribune S. Holland (IL) Dolton Pointer Economist PAGE 97 Pittsburgh Post-Gazette May 1, 1980 TJl~'s Obstructionism It comes as no surprise that the National used by NRA antique gun shooters and Rifie Association is opposed to "tagging," "band.loaders," and there's evidence that a process whereby tiny tracer particles tagging substances can cause ammunition are added to uplosives in order to aid lawto ignite unpredictably. enforcement identification of bombs in tbe event of a crime. Though testing and safety research for the procedure are not yet complete, the idea of adding microscopic ''taggants" during the manufacture of explosives is a perfectly sound one which should move forward quickly. According to a study by the U.S. Office of Technology Assessment' (which acknowledges the need for more safety research), the coded "tags'' consti tute a labeling program which can help police track terrorists and other crimiDals who use esplosive devices. Designed to survive an aplosioa, tags can identify the type and brand of explosives, and when and where they were made. Microcapsules contained in the tags also giVe off vapors through which special sensors can detect hidden bombs. Tagging is a pilot program under devel opment as part of a larger anti-terrorist campaign by the government It's a cre ative approach to a serious problem. So why is the NRA opposing it? An NRA spokesman tells the Post-Gazette it is because safety factors haven't been worked out yet; the taggants would be introduced into some explosive powders Clearly, taggants have to be proven safe before they're employed. But that is -no pun intended -a smokescreen: the NRA opposes the whole idea of taggants. And why? Because, according to the lobby group, lawbreakers will just get their explosives from the military (whose explo sives are exempt from tagging). The NRA says the entire program, even if perfectly safe, is not a "workable criminal deterrent." The NRA's opposition is typical of th.t organiiation's reaction to all sane proposals handgun control, for example -to cut down on the carnage caused by fire arms and explosive devices, which wipe out about 20,000 Americans every year. Those truly concerned with curbing -not miraculously eliminating criminal use of explosives should communicate their support of further taggant develop ment to members of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee. NRA obstruc tionism should be ignored. Once safety problems are ironed out, the only thing at stake is the sacred right to keep and bear bombs. PAGE 98 Seattle Post-Intelligencer April 28, 1980 Bon1h's Fingerprints May Catch Terrorists WASHINGTON tUPD P1acing tiny labeling dmces called "taggaD1S" in expi~ sives cou!d heq, fight temll'iSI: bombings, but they must first be proven safe, congressional researchers said yesterday. One type of taggant emits a vapor which enables special instruments to spot hidden explOSives. Another, which couid survive detonatiOn. would enable investi gators to trace-the source of tbe explosives to their original purchaser much like a fingerprint. But a report by lb~ ~smeat <;9nduded further testing JSneeifecfoefcie a program is implement ed to add taggants to ext)losive matetiaJs. "Bombings currently are a low-risk. relatively simple tyl)e of criminal activity," the report noted. MEach element of risk to the bomber will decrease the likelihood of his actually committing the bombing." Some estimates cited by OT A suggest -ed bombing arrests o,uJd inerease as much as 75 percent if a taggant program is establisned. The Treasury Department's Bureau of Afcohol., Tobacco and Firearms repons m-1978-there were 896 bombings that killed 2.1 persons and injured 185. The FBL \\1th' different data. reported 768 bombings m. 1978 killing 18 persons and injuring 13.5. ; Peter Sbarfman. who directed the OT A study, said assuming taggants are_ oroven safe, adding them to explosives.. could COit between OJ million and $26&. million annually, depending on tbe nature' of the program. The study was requested by Sen. Abra ham Ribicoff. D-Conn.. chairman ot the Senate Go9enunental Affairs Committee, and committee members Jacob Javits. R N.Y., and Ted Ste'leus, R-AJasb, in con junction with antHer?Orism legislanon be,ore Q>ogress. Similar articles also appeared in: Logan (UT) Herald Hournal Ogden (UT) Standard-Examiner Painesville (OH) Telegraph Fort Wayne (IN) Journal-Gazette San Diego Evening Tribune Provo (UT) Herald Auburn (NY) Citizen Los Angeles Times Plattsburgh (NY) Press-Republican Charlottesville (VA) Progress Cheyenne (WY) Eagle Robinson (IL) News Omaha World-Herald Terre Haute (IN) Tribune Binghamton (NY) Sun-Bulletin Texarkana (~X) Gazette PAGE 99 Chemical & Engineering News April 28, 1980 Tag~ants useful in preventing bombings A report just released by the Office _of Technology Assessment. concT~des that using miniature labehn~ deVlces, or taggants." in commercial ex~lo sives could be a useful tool ~ga~nst manv terrorist and criminal bombers. b Two types of taggants are eu~g considered for simultaneous use m explosives: an ident~ficati?n t;aggan~, which would permit pobce mvest1-aators to trace the manufacturer and the last legal purchaser of an explo sive even after it had been detonated, and a detection taggant that could _be detected by special sensors even with the explosive in a suitcase. \ According to OT A, however, a I number of technical problems need to be solved before taggants can be widely used. A primary problem is safety. Though proponents of taggants say such systems are safe, OT A cites two cases where a combination of taggant and explosive 1 chemicals reacted at high temperatures. Cost estimates for implementing a taggant program vary widely. OTA estimates that a "baseline" program would cost about $45 million annuallv and would increase average explosives cost about 12o. Explosives manu: facturers consider this cost too high. 1 Law enforcement officials take a slightly guarded view of taggants. Taggants could prevent many bombings and aid investigators in almost all significant criminal bombings involving commercial ex plosives. However, technically skilled, highly motivated terrorists probably could find some effective countermeasure for taggants, officials say. So OT A characteristically has come down firmly on both sides of the fence. It believes that taggants should be developed and tested by 1983 and that a program could be in operation by 1985. But the agency says also that considerable research must he done and the controversies of safety. cost, and efficacy must be resolved. CJ Fort Worth (TX) Star-Telegrar:i ;1ay 28, 1980 bob hood/ Anti-gun legislators find trigger tightening tough .-\ta time when supporters of anti-gun legislation are fast losing ground in Congress. the Bureau of .-\icohol. Tobacco and Firearms 1BATFl also is hav ing its troubles convincing Congress to strengthen its existing powers. The BATF reeently offered Congress a plan that would allow the federal agency to place taggants" in exploshe matelials such as gun powder in an effort to llelp its investigators trace the purchasers incaseswherethematerial has been used illegally. The taggants are small particles which stay intact when the powder is exploded. When coded. they could lead investigators to the last person who pur chased the material over the retail market. However. the taggants have not passed safety tests made by the Congressional Office of Technoloi;y Assessment. In fact. the taggants themselves haYe exploded in at least one safety test. Since the BATF has planned to use taggants in hoth smokeless and black powder. pro-gun support trs have blasted the proposed use. claiming the taggants pose a threat to handloaders and black powder shooters. The NRA. which represents 1.7 million shooting enthusiasts, has opposed the taggants since they were introduced. claiming they are unduly expensi~e and would be innefective as a means of combat ting criminal bombings. A chemical reaction between the tags and one type of smokeless' powder was discovered during tests made by the Congressional Office of Te<:hnology .-\ssessment. Another highly explosive reaction also was found between the tags and another type or explosive. During its investigation of the tagging prograi:i. theOTAalsocited numerous ways a criminal bomb er could circumvent the plan. :'.\leanwhile. almost half of the Senate recentJ\ indicated they would not support any further pieces of legislation placing additional restrictions on gun ,)wners. Also. sereral states around the countn ha,e seen their individual legislatures make pro-gun moves. In Kentuckv. for instance, that state's senate has passed a resolution stating "this honorable body hereby places itself on record as opposing any and all proposals which would advocate the further control. restriction. or prohibition or sale. posses~ion or use of firearms ... In Alaska. a bill recently was passed bythatstates ;,.,mate and house which authorizes the construction and operation of public shooting ranges through th~ .\laska ~partment of Fish and Game. PAGE 100 Aviation Daily May 8, 1980 OTA STUDY SAYS "Xi'LOSIVE TAGGANTS NEED MORE TESTING Tlw Office of Teuinology Assessment has concluded that explosive taggants need more *Jdy before a prowarn re4uirio9 their use can be implemented. In releasing a 262-page report on tagging explosives, O r A said the testing of taggants has been incomplete to assure that taggants are safe. OT A undertook the study at the request of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee, which is considering a terrorism bill. As a result of the study, it is unlikely that the committee will vote to include a taggant program in the bill. The Mouse Public Works and Transportation Committee's terrorism bill docs not contain such a program. Commenting on the OTA study, Rep. Gene Snyder (A-Ky.), ranking minority member on the aviation subcommittee, said the report supports the committee's decision to eliminate the taggant program from the legislation. Calling the program "an expensive boondoggle," Snyder said OT A determined that a taggant program would cost between $45 million and $268 million a year depending on how extensive a program was chosen. Noting that there are "major discrepencies" between the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms' (BATF) testimony before the aviation subcommittee and OTA's findings, Snyder said Congress should de termine if the BATF testimony "was a result of ignorance on their part, or an attempt to deceive the Congress." PAGE 101 Air Line Pilot June 1980 Coalition for Safe Skies Anti-terrorism legislation, first in troduced in the Senate three years ago by Sen. Abraham Ribicoff (D-Conn.), is still pending before Congress. A new group, called the Coalition for Safe Skies, composed of individuals, organizations, and corporations has been formed to support passage of the bill by the end of the yeat. The wide-ranging alliance, organized and coordinated by ALPA, includes celebrities such as Charlton Heston, Jean Stapleton, and Brooks Robinson, as well as in dustry groups, associations, labor unions, governors, mayors of most major cities, and most airlines. Despite ostensible broad, non partisan support, the original Ribi coff bill became entangled in the committee system and never reached the Senate floor for a vote. In February 1979, Ribicoff redrafted the bill and with 21 cosponsors in troduced it as the Omnibus Anti terrorism Act of 1979. Rep. Glenn Anderson (D-Calif.) along with 67 cosponsors intro duced counterpart legislation in the House entitled the Act to Combat International Terrorism. Both bills provide for criminal sanctions against hijackers and sa boteurs. In addition, countries that aid or harbor terrorists would be au tomatically subject to sanctions, in cluding the elimination of foreign aid and defense assistance. Under the proposed legislation, foreign airports not meeting or refusing to impose security measures would be subject to international travel re strictions, denial of technical and financial aid, and possible loss of air service. The names of such airports would be prominently displayed at U.S. airports as a warning to travel ers. White House responsibilities under the law would include peri odic reports to Congress on terror ism activity as well as presidential efforts to establish international agreements against terrorism. Both the House and the Senate bills also call for explosives to be manufactured with taggants, tiny magnetic particles used for detec tion and identification purposes. The National Rifle Association (NRA) has opposed this provision on the grounds that the taggants present safety hazards. As the na tion's gun lobby, NRA is admittedly fearful that the taggant requirement could be a step toward gun control legislation. A recently completed congres sional study by the Office of Tech nol~__filses~~~ru .@TAJ incfcates tnat'technology could make tag gants viable in the future, but the report failed to endorse their imme diate use. ALPA is urging Congress to re tain the taggant requirement. "The OTA report shows that it is possible to develop a low cost, safe, and effective method to stop the illegal use of explosives, and to identify those who use them," ALPA President Capt. John J. O'DonneH com mented. "For the sake of the count less innocent victims who could be saved from this senseless form of vi olence, we cannot afford to ignore this opportunity." In addition to the opposition to the taggant provision, neither the White House nor the State Department like the idea of automatic sanctions. The Carter administra tion would rather decide each coun try's case individually before tak ing action. The final Senate bill will likely require some type of action, but will give the President several options. In a letter-writing and telephone campaign to individual congress men the Coalition for Safe Skies is urging prompt resolution of these differences in order to enact anti terrorismihijacking laws by the end of the year. PAGE 102 Encoding an explosive business '.'Jabbing terrorist bombers is a difficult business. But work on a system to scent" and "fingerprint" commercial chemical expiosives could leave most forensic bloodhounds at least a whifi oi clues with which to begin their !"!unt. Cnder development are taggants. additives manufacturers dope explosive materials with to aid in both the detection and identification of bombs. Thev come in two varieties. Detection species pack microcap sules of perfluorinated-cyclo-alkane compounds that time-re-! lease easily detected vapors. Portable mechanical sniffers: such as mass spectrometers and electron-capture detectors. could track down hidden bombs before they go off. Alternatively. mounted versions could screen entrants to high-risk areas much as airport X-ray equipment now scans hand-held luggage. Designed to survive detonation. identification species include materials coded to identify the batch and presumably also the last legal consumers of a manufacturing batch. A jacket of special materials aids in their retrieval from rubble with magnets. Coating the sand-sized particles with phosphors causes them to glow under ultraviolet light-a boon to finding tags the size of a needle's eye in the dark. Proposed legislation would require taggants in all explosives l even gunpowder). But a l i2-page draft by the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment reported last week that there were still unresolved issues. For example, depending how frequently codes change-annually, per shift. or per 2,000 to 10.000 pound batch cost of identification coding could run users between $80 million and S268 million yearly, the report says. For detection systems, finding a "happy compromise between cost and sensitivity" in detectors is the big issue. says Quon Kwan of Aerospace Corp., the firm supervising much of the Treasury Department's taggant-development program. OTA says 3M Co.'s microplastic chips, color-coded like elec tronic resistors, are the leading contender in identification tags. Yet Kwan says their insertion in hot explosives has occasionally caused discoloring and deterioration, a sign of reactivity. And it's feared that the potential abrasiveness of magnetically coded taggants-composed of combinations of ferrites, each with its own Curie point (the temperature where a particle loses its magnetism) could cause premature detonation. Chemical Week (April 30, 1980) Science ~ews :-.!ay lO, 1980 -OTA atudy calls taggant reseerch 'pretlmlnary' Proponents af taggants in explosives received little encouragement from a study released this week by the Office of Techno_~08.l_~ID~n.t. (Taggant.s are fluorescent microparticles added t.o explosives t.o help identify the source of the explosive and trace the chain of ownership-CW, Nov. 28, 1979, p. 23.) The study describes as ''preliminary'' the nature of t.aggant research and the degree of safety t.est:ing. It questions the survivability of taggant.s in extremely powerful explosions, and it observes that knowledge able and skilled terrorists or criminals could nullify the impact of a tagging program. Senator Ted Stevens (D Alaska), who opposes the Senate bill that would require i.aggallttt in all explosives, states that, given the lack of technological development in t.aggant.s, "it is ludicrous to be talking about implementing such a program at this time." PAGE 103 Systems, Technology & Science ~ewsletter :1ay 1980 EXPLOSIVE TAGGANTS STUDIED BY (oNGRESS GROUP In a report released by the Senate GoveITlI!lental ).fairs Committee, the Congressi~~al Office of Tecimology Assessment (OTA) assesses the cost and safety as well as the use:ul ness to law enforcement of taggants (minature labeling devices) in commercial explosives and gunpowders. Two different kinds of taggants are considered. Identification taggants are micro scopic chips containing a code, designed so that the chips could be recovered from the debris of a bomb explosion. If a ccmnercial explosive were used in a bombing, the code --along with a record-keeping network--would allow investigators to trace the explosive T0 a list of all legal purchasers, and thus assist in the search for the bomber. Detection tag~ants emit a vapor which would escape from a suitcase or package containing a bomb, and w ich would be detected by a suitable sensing machine placed at an airport, public building entrance, etc. According to the OTA report, the safety of adding such taggants to explosive materials has not yet been established. Further development, and extensive further testing, would be necessary, OTA finds, before taggants could be considered safe and a pTogram implemented. STS Newsletter--ls, may not mean much if doctors con tinue lo concentrate in larger cities and specialize lo the degree they have in _recent years. "lf things go as in the past, we will continue to gel more surgeons and more unnecessary surgery," he said. According to Bania, the over-all supply figures are not as important as such issues as changes In dodor dis tribution, productivity and habits of practice, as well as shifts In fee I>al lerns as doctors begin lo comIlclc with euch other more i1itensety for patients. "Those system changes," he said, "are not being talked aboul." "There Is no question that we are In creasing our per capita supply of doctors at a very rapid rate," be said. "But we are not doing anything to be sure they go where services are needed." Similar articles also appeared in: The report comes amid soul-search ing over health manpower policy. ln creosingly, experts are saying that the need-is not to train more and more doclors but to distribute them more evenly throughout the country and to channel more doctors into general practice. That message is beginning to be fell Atlanta Constitution Pensacola (FL) Journal Bakersfield (CA) Californian Houston Chronicle Denver Post Long Beach (CA) Independent Winston-Salem (NC) Journal Nashville Tennessean Spokane (WA) Spokesman-l{eview San Diego Union Wichita (KS) Eagle Newport News (VA) Press Courier Express (Buffalo, New Inndon (CT) Day Cedar Rapids (IA) Cazette Dallas Morni.ng News NY) PAGE 108 Callaway (~E) Courier (:fay 14, 1980) :;Jfor uhc 1Rccord A commentary on Congress by VIRGINIA SMITH -3rd O~trid Nebraska G.ttiug Docton to Serve Where Needed: The astonishing new report of the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment forecasts that this country is rapidly acquiring an oversupply of medical doctors. Those familiar, as I am. with the supply and demand situation that we have in states like Nebraska wonder if this could possibly be true. II indeed there will be 185,000 more physicians than needed in the United States by the year 1990, I say that a better job will have to be done in encouraging this surplus medical manpower to locate where it is needed. The latest figures show that the United States has a ratio of 617 people for each medical doctor. In Nebraska. which has 2.125 doctors, the ratio is 735 people for each doctor. But, taking the Third District by itself, with 399 doctors serving an estimated 511,582 people, the ratio is 1282 people to each doctor. That disparity in itself makes the Third District one of the country's most serious medically under served areas. To cloud the picture even more, 43 percent of the doctors now serving the people of the Third District are over 50 years of age. In the next 10 years when the country will be building up that projected doctor surplus, our ratio of people to doctors will be growing worse. So the big problem remains. If we don't have a shortage of doctors, we do have maldistribution. We still have to find a way to get some of the doctors to serve in the run! areas, where there are few or no doctors now. To that end, I will continue my efforts to tryto get some of _the surplus into the counties where there 1s a real shortage, and thus narrow that ratio of people to doctor to a more satisfactory figure. To HeJ.,. Battle IDilatioalncreue Productivity: One of the great economic perils to the nation is the falling rate of productivity because the nation's tax policies have caused a capital investment void resulting in outdated plants and equipment. This erosion is one of the causes for the economic slump we're in. Wben the rate of productivity increases, it -will be an important factor in the reduction of the high rate of inflation and the general improvement in the economy. Just how. valuable is increased national productivity in the fight against inflation? I have just reviewed a report of the Joint Economic Committee of the Congress that shows that inflation will be reduced 2.1 to 2.4 percent for every 1 percent of increased productivity. This percentage improves as the multiplier effect works over the long term. One way to increase productivity is through a judicious tax cut to put more money in the hands of the people, businessmen, and other segments of the private rector. It increases their buying power, stimulates business and generates jobs. That's one reason why so much emphasis is being put on balancing the budget by decreasing spending so that taxes can be cut, rather than by trying to balance the budget by increasing taxes. Similar articles also appeared in: Gering (NE) Courier Lexington (NE) Clipper Western Nebraska Observer Sidney (NE) Telegraph Valentine (NE) Newspaper Osceola (NE) Record O'Neill (NE) Independent Shelton (NE) Clipper Wolbach (NE) Messenger Rushville (~E) Sheridan County Star PAGE 109 Sale Lake (UT) Tribune April 30, 1980 s Congressiona predicting that the United States faces an over-supply of medical doctors. The same authorities -con cede, however. that not enough is being done to see that the doctors are practicing where their services are most needed. The Congressional OUice_ of Tech nology Assessment calculates that by 1990 the country might have as many as 185,000 more physicians than it needs. But unless some way is found to convince the new physicians to spread out into the countryside there will still be areas without enough doctors in 1990. Dr. David Banta, health program manager for the te<:hnology assessment office. wants to increase federal efforts to share the medical man power. to send it where it is most needed. Dr. Banta. however. does not see the oversupply of physicians producing a medical unemployment problem such as some other profes sion might face when too many practitioners are in the field. If the medical men continue to concentrate in larger cities and specialize, Dr. Banta notes, "\\'e will continue to get more surgeons and more unnecessary surgery." There is e\idence that the legal profession has been operating on that premise for years. As more lawyers come out of law schools. more litigation is created and the courts are struggling to keep pace. It's nothing new. Parkinson's Law. "work expands to fill the time." applies to excess doctors and lawyers, too. PAGE 110 .,,.--...___. Where are t! doctors going? ( Anyone who has spel0JJajAL f at a very rapid rate. But we are not dotng restless and uncomfortable waiting in a anything' to be sure they go where serdoctor's office is going to find it difficult vices are necessary. to believe that the country is acq~ing a "large oversupply" of doctors. This infor. The doctors aren t distri~u~ evenly. mation was developed by the Congresm other words. and there aren t enoulZh sional Office of Tecbnol~ Assessment. general pra~titioners. And now .wna.t. '? Is With a name such as t t, probably it Congress gomg to pass a ~aw? No. No~ at ought to know what it is talking about. It the moment. nor should 1t. But poss1bly has stated that by 1990 we may have an when that fatal day ~o~es, when we have excess of 185.000 physicians. almost 200,000 p~ys1cians too many, we What. then, is wrong with our percep-Will still be ~a.itmg one ~nd two ho~ tion? There don't really seem to be and more to see doctor .. And readiD:g enough doctors. Says Dr. David Banta, the same year-old magazines. Th~re IS health program manager for the assesswhere a law is needed. When we have figment study: ured the co~titutional aspects of ~he 'There is no question that we are mmatter, we will pro~ l~1:5la~on. Do creasing our per capita supply of doctors not spend the summer m antic1pat1on. ,...._,, __ :_':t.,.. "'.:", Distributing health care Much. has been written over the past several decades about the desperate shortage of medical doctors in this country. Efforts to fill that void have obviously worked because by 1990, according to federal projections, there will be a surplus of physicians. The Congressional Office of Tech nology Assessment predicts that with in a decade, the nation may have 18S,. 000 more doctors than are needed. The U.S. Department of Health, Ed.ucation and Welfare also has forecast a sur plus. but much smaller than that predicted by the Congressional study. Regardless of the numbers, both studies make it quite clear that the surplus may affect only certain parts of the country. particularly large cities, because there is no guarantee that the doctors will locate where thev are :nost criticaL: needed. In additwn, many speciaiu,;,S -such as family medicine. pediatrics and internal medic11:e -w1ll continue to experience shortages. "If thmgs go as in the ;,a~t." said Dr. David Banta of he tl:c::r,otogy :isscssment office, "we will continue to get more surgeons and more unnecessary surgery." The studi~s ~ere prepared as part of efforts in Was,hington to revise the focus of federal support for medical education. In the past. in order to fill the need for physicians. the government has provided massive subsidies to construct new faciYties and tram students. Those programs have suc ceeded and now attention must be directed toward assuring that the doc tors tocate where they are needed. A number of states, coping with shortages of medical personnel in rural areas, have undertaken such incentive programs, including lower ing tuition for students who agree to practice in a particular area after certi fication. Other similar incentives could be devised to attract phvsicians to outlying areas and into fieicts still understaffed. Now that the supply and demand problem appears to have been resolved. the time has come to take on the r.:hattenge of distr.bu,ton. PAGE 111 Knoxville (TI!) News-Sentinel (April 25, 1980) I v :Real Income of Half the Country's Physicians on Decline, Study Shows By WILLIAM STEIF 5crilNII I le-Slalf Wrilff w ASHINGTON -The real income of half the nation's physicians -the half you're likely to see if you're sick -is de clining. a new study shows. But the physicians who are based in hospitals surgeons. pathologists. anesthesiologists and radiologistS are doing better than ever, according to the study by Urban Institute economist Jack Had ley. Physicians whose real incomes, after figuring in inflation. are down include general practitioners, pediatricians, psy chiatrists and obstetrician-gynocologist& the study said. These "primary-care" physicians de pend mostly on vats by their patients and do not raise their rees as rapidly as the hospital-based specialists, according to the study. "This is a kind of early warning of what's to C1>me." said David Banta. health program manager ror the congressional Office of Technology Assessment. Banta's office recently reported that by 199a the United States may have 185,000 more physicians than it needs. Hadley, in testimony to a House health subcommittee. reported that a general practitioner's real ineome adjusted for inflation declined lo.3 percent from 1970 through 1978. The average income over eight years dropped 2.3 percent for internal medicine specialists, 0.9 percent for obstetriciangynocologists and 19.8 percent for psychiatrists. By contrast, Hadley. said, all medical specialists increased their real income 10.S percent in the 1970-78 period. That means that surgeons and other hospital-based specialists enjoyed whop ping inc:r9ases in r.eal income, more than compensating for the slippage in t.'\e incomes of the primary-care physicio1r.s. About 80 percent of the nation's 450,000 physicians are in active practice, Hadley said. The rest are in research, teaching, administration or related occu pations. The primary-care physicians re present half the total in active practice. GPs and internal medicine spedailsts are the two biggest groups. Hadley said the "slowdown in our rate of population growthn has affected the primary-care physicians' incomes. He also concluded: '"There Is growing evidence that the increasing supply is pushing more and more physicians into smaller communi ties. .. .u cem,,etttion ror privately in sured patients becomes more intense. physicians may become more willing to treat" Medicaid and Medicare patients. ..J Similar articles also appeared in: Albuquerque (NM) Tribune Rocky Mountain News (Denver, CO) The Press (New York, NY) Evansville (IN) Press Fullerton (CA) News Tribune El Paso (TX) Herald-Post PAGE 112 Houston Post April 18, 1980 Physician report needs d~~?!ing, study says I \ WASH!NGTON (AP) A reeent government report on the number of doctors the nation will need by 1990 may have overestimated funrre use of medical services as well as the physi cians needed to provide them, a con grE'SSional study said Thursday. The Office of Technology Assess ment report said the Department of Health, Education and Welfare used assumptions in its projection models that may not be reasonable and valid, giving rise to possible overestimates. For example, the OTA analysis. said, using 1968 to 1976 per capita fig. 'ures for using medical services as a base for projecting future use results in higher estimates than if the years 1971 to 1976 were used. This is because medical use was going up in 1968 and coming down in 1971. Basing 19'JO projections on an upswing period results in different fig., ures than using a downturn period, the OT A said. Dr. John Drabek of HEW's Bureau of Health Professions Analysis, which produced the first report. said r.he OTA study pointed to weaknesses in analysis techniques that statisticians are aware of but can't do much about. "Their (OTA's) views reflect differ ences of opinion on methodology and to a greater extent emphasis." Drabek said. "There is no ideal sys tem and people emphasize different things. We feel we have a reasonable range of projections." The HEW study released Sunday said the number of physicians needed in 1990 will range betw~n 553,000 and 596,000. But the report said the supply of doctors is expected to be in the range of 600,000. a possible excess. There were 379,000 doctors in 1978, the latest figuf1! available. Similar articles also appeared in: Phoenixville (PA) Evening Phoenix Pensacola (FL) Journal Whichita Falls (TX) Record News PAGE 113 ~edical World ~ews May 26, 1980 Too many doctors? It depends who's counting WASHINGTON-Although two government agencies calculate there will be an oversupply of physicians by 1990, their estimates differ by as much as 30%. The sticking point is whether utilization trends will continue-and if so, which ones. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS, formerly HEW) predicts a need for 552,400 to 596,200 physicians (MDs and DOs) against a supply of 598,200. The Congressional Qffice __ gf J'~~nology Assessment (OTA), on the other hand, caicu.lates a need for 24 OVERSUPPLY cononly 415,000 physicians and puts the supply at 600,000. Both groups took their data from the well at HHS' Bureau of Health Professions (formerly HEW's Bureau of Health Manpower), which extrapolates future manpower needs from current utilization, ad justed for increased population ( and changes in age, sex, and income distribution) and for trends in per-capita utilization of physi cian office services. But the OTA reports calls HHS' projection incorrect in assumingGraduates of the future may eam their mortarboards with less money from Uncle Sam if Congress believes its doctor-counters. on the basis of trends from 1968 to 1976-that an increase in utiliza tion will continue through 1990. If the trend line starting in 1971 is used instead, OTA maintains, uti: lization rates will actually decrease and HHS' prediction needs to be trimmed by 185,000 physicians. In either case, there will be an oversupply of physicians-either by as many as 185,000 or as few as 2,000-unless, the OTA report states, some other things change. "If it is desirable for use to rise, for physicians to spend a few extra minutes with each patient, or for physicians to have shorter workweeks, much of the projected sup ply of 600,000 physicians in 1990 could be appropriate." With Congress currently consid ering major changes in the health manpower law, which is due to expire October 1, predictions of physician oversupply could weigh against continuing capitation pay ments to medical schools. This is one reason why the Association of American Medical Colleges has never accepted the validity of any continued MEDICAL WORLD NEWS-/M~ 25, 1980 oi the projections made to date. "There's no very good way of predicting anything unless we know more about what services will have to be provided 10 years from now," claims AAMC's direc tor of academic affairs. Dr. August G. Swanson. "\vno knows what will show up next year in the way of biomedical application'?" services," Dr. Swanson observed. "There probably will be significant changes in the way physicians practice," he noted, citing trends toward more group practice. ernment's "acting as if they were buying physicians, rather than car rying out this obligation." HHS Secretary Patricia Harris told reporters there was no clear analysis showing \vhether the cost of medical care vrnuld be reduced because of the projected adequate supply of doctors. "'\Ve have never lived in an excess-supply situa tion," she said, "so we don't have a model that would give us an The development of artificial dialysis, for example, "dramatical ly changed the need for nephrology Whether there are too many or too few doctors, Dr. Swanson asserted, the federal government has an obligation to support U.S. medical education, to assure a continuous supply of high-quality phy sicians as "a national, mobile resource." He otiected to the govanswer." PAGE 114 2 United States An excess of doctors ... David Dickson reports from Washington on the levels of manpower in medicine, and womanpower in science AFTER fifteen years' rapid expansion, US medical schools are beginning to produce more doctors than the country needs. Earlier this month the Department of Health, Education and Welfare (OHEW) predicted that the surplus could be between 4,000 and 40,000 by 1990; and other estimates make it considerably higher. Numbers alone, however, hide the fact that not all medical graduates go where they are required. In particular. the more lucrative fields of surgery continue to exert higher attraction than primary health care, especially on those who may leave medical school with outstanding loans of $40,000 to $50,000. Ironically the current situation is largely the result of the success of the government's previous efforts to fit medical education to social needs. These were initiated in the late I 960s, when a national shortage of doctors led the government to offer generous grants to medical schools willing to increase their enrollments. With the encouragement of 'capitation' grants (based on the number of students) and funds for the crea!ion of new medical schools, the number of places for medical students has doubled, from about 8,000 to 16,000. And although the rate of expansion has slackened off, there is no indication that it is likely to fall, particularly given the continued excess of applicants over available places. both the DHEW and the OT A report emphasise fields in need of more doctors, for example, for work among imigrant and minority populations. The dilemma is over the appropriate response of both the federal government and the medical schools. The Carter Administration is using the over-supply figures to support its proposal that all direct federal aid to medical schools should now be dropped, confining assistance to student grants and loans. The schools, in contrast, feel that relying on tuition fees alone would place unacceptable pressures on students. And that some form of additional support, not tied to providing health services or to funding research which are both tightly regulated, would now be welcome. So far the administration's attempt to eliminate capitation grants has met limited success. Although omitted from DHEW's budget request for 1980 last year, they were put back by Congress reacting to pressure from the medical schools. In January the President asked that the capitation grants be withdrawn from the 1980 budget, but again Congress disagreed. A further attempt to cut the money OUL was made in the President's revised budget request last month among the revisions for 1980. And the issue remains unresolved. .Vature Vol. 235 J .Hay :980 However congressional amtudes :ue changing, reflecting the s~~oois acceptance of the current illogic of measures to increase docror supply. Last week a House subcommittee proposed that, in renewing the heaith education support legislation which runs ou, :his year. capitation grants should be phased down' by steps of 251170 over the next three years. And although remaining agnostic over whether the nation faces an oversupply of doctors. the subcommittee agreed that no new medical schools should receive federal funding. The main problem facing the schools is the implication of the growth in tuition fees, which can now go as high as SS,000 a year. One approach has been to seek new forms of outside assistance: thirteen private medical schools announced last week that they are to divide 51.3 million next year awarded by the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation to assist students with more forthcoming later to those able to raise matching grant from alumni or elsewhere. Others are seeking new forms of federal support for teaching. "One way would be to develop a two-part system. All schools would get a cenain base amount, and you could then pick and choose programmes which might qualify for additional funding" says Dr Richard Ro55, Dean of the Medical Faculty and Jonns Hopkins Medical School. Without some such support, fears are growing that many of the trends which federal funding has encouraged such as the growing recruitment of students from minority or low-income groups could be reversed. And that current mismatches between the supply of physicians and health needs may only be exacerbated. The consequence of a growing domestic supply plus the influx of foreign doctors during the period of shortage is that, according to figures prepared by DHEW's Bureau of Health Manpower, there will be 600,000 doctors in the US by 1990 but the need will only be for between 553,000 Nature (London, England) May 1, 1980 and 596,000. / Congress' Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) predicts an even wider gap. !n a report on the bureau's statistical methodology published last week, it agrees with the supply figure but points out that the projected need is based on a linear extrapolation of an observed increase in the per capita demand for physicians over the period 1968 to 1976. The OT A. report also points out, however. that since 1971 the per capita demand has been falling. And that if this trend is combined with expected demographic changes, the need for doctors by 1990 could be as low as 415,000. :-lo-one is particularly worried about the surplus itself. Despite the growing signs oi a shift away from surgery into general practice, there are still likely to reamin -as iX,!'8-mti6, ~) !800: 'lSOl..xl PAGE 115 WASHlrtGTON KEP'OKT Akey health panel in late April resisted entreaties from the Administration to eliminate support to nursing education, and voted to continue capitation grants to nursing schools, including those that are hospital-based, and scholar ships and loans for nursing students. Recognizing the nationwide shortage of nurses. the House Interstate and Foreign Commerce Committee health subcommittee, chaired by Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA). approved an author ization of $106 million per year-the current appropriation level-for nurs ing education programs for fiscal years 1981, 1982, and 1983. [t there by rejected the Administration's view. publicly expressed at a sub committee hearing in March by Department of Health and Human Ser vices (HHS) Assistant Secretary for Health and Surgeon General Julius Richmond. M.D that federal funds should not be used to expand the supply of nurses, because they "are not economical solutions" to the problem. In earlier action (see "Washington Report," May 1, 1980, p. 27). the panel was less generous in its deci sion concerning health professions education. Responding to an Admin istration request to terminate support. effective September 30, 1980, the expiration date of present health manpower education authorities. the panel voted in mid-April to phase out ,mpport to medical and other health Hospitals (Chicago, IL) May 16, 1980 Panel retains funds for nurses in manpower bill professions 5chools over a three-year period at significantly reduced levels, compared with current appropria tions. The only health professions institu tions to emerge unscathed-in a group including schools of medicine. osteopathy, dentistry. veterinary medicine, optometry, pharmacy. and podiatry-were schools of public health. The panel's decision to phase out support came at a time of heavy pressure on Congress for a balanced budget, when it was setting its spend ing targets for FY 1981. The subcommittee also voted to re duce the authorization level for the National Health Service Corps (NHSC) from $133 million to $94 million, the current appropriation. The Administration, in its original budget request, which was presented in January, had asked for the higher figure, to make the corps the corner stone of its assistance program for medically underserved areas. How ever, the Administration included an even larger reduction than the sub committee's $39 million in its revised budget request of late ~arch. there by eliminating one of the few program budget increases it had recom mended in January. In its positive stand on nursing edu cation programs, the panel endorsed not only nursing capitation, scholar ships, and loans. hut also ;;pecial project grants. advanced nurse train ing funds. and support for nurse practitioner program~. The .-\meril:an Hospital Association. in an April l:5 letter to subcommittee members. strongly urged support of all the~e programs. noting the "5hort supply of nurses in many hospitals" and the need for ptograms to redress the shortfall. The AHA also asked the members to approve provisions to extend the sustantial disruption" waiver for foreign medical graduates (nlGsl serving medically underserved hos pitals and to expand, to a maximum of seven years, the length of time FMGs mav stav in this countrv to complete ~uc~tion programs...:..pro visions that were accepted at the final mark-up session. [n ordering that the nursing and health professions education provi sions. the NHSC authorization. and the ''substantial clisruption" waiver be reported out. the panel decided to introduce two "clean" bills. one con taining the education and NHSC' pro visions and the other-additional!\' subject to House Judiciary Comn;it tee approval-the waiver. Both hills were scheduled for markup by the full Commerce Committee the ::1~t part of May. The Senate Labor and Human Resources Committee health subcom mittee, chaired by Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-:'.l'lA), was slate,i to take up its health manpower educa tion bills at about the same time. HOW MA.'lY :VlDs FOR 1990'.' As the House Commerce Comminee health panel labored on health manlP!ense turn to pHJP .f:.!J PAGE 116 WASHINGTON REPORT CONTINUED power legislation last month, the Congressional Office ot' Technology Assessment !OTA) released an analv sis of ways in which the supply of physicians is estimated, shedding new light on the issue, hut also stir ring oluii suggest that there remains and -_1il remain in the near r'uture signir'icant harriers to ootaining medically neces sary care for iarge segment5 or' the .--1.merican population rather ,han ::'0r a tew ,:iiscrete areas and 9opula tions ... Such barriers undouotedh would inciude financial. geog-raph1c. cultural. and educational ohscacie5 to seeking care. Finally. according to OTA ii the BH:\1 and G:VIE); AC estimates are relative!y close-a situation that could he viewed as the most de sirable outcome" -this w0uld 5ugg-e;:t that the demand for ph~sicians 5er vices "is more or less in line" with estimates of medical need. Howewr. because data hased 0n the G}IE:;-.;AC model were not :;et available. OT.\ admitted that it was not possible t0 judge which of the three altemafr:ecouiroblem here, or am I being concerned about a problem that doesn't exist? 'Ned '. DEAR NED: You have put your ringer on a real problem, one that has concerned the congressional Offi_ce of Technq~~~~.According to an OTA .study, the drugs to whicli you refer may be contributing. to the resistance of bacteria to antibiotics, and may po86 a danger to humans. :, The addition of anti-bacterial drugs to animal feed is not a new development; it has been going on foi more than 30 years.Now, about 60 percent of cattle, 90 percent of swine and veal calves, and almost all poultry are being fed these drugs. Although scientists are not -certain how the antibiotics work, OTA notes that the drugs, by killing non-resistant organisms, probably aid the growth of drug-resistant bacteria. Similar articles also appeared in: While the extent to which these drugs have compromised the effectiveness of antibiotics in humans is not known, it is a fact that resistance has increased. over the past 30 yean. For example, while 1 percent of C(l8ee of aalmonell8B were resistant to tetracycline in 1948, 40 percent were resistant in 1973. ;_ O'rA's report has been submitted to Congress. Dallas Times Herald Greensboro (NC) Record Birmingham (AL) News Oakland (CA) Tribune Kannapolis (NC) Independent St. Louis Globe-Democrat Niagara Falls Gazette Burlington (IA) Hawk-Eye Atlanta Journal Kansas City Star Indianapolis News Ada (OK) News Painesville (OH) Telegraph Dover (NJ) Advance Newport (RI) News Arizona Daily Star Atlantic City (NJ) Press Hutchinson (KS) News PAGE 123 Other PAGE 125 Pioche (NV) Record June 19, 1980 MX alternatives to be studied W ASHINGTIN-C.Ongress' Q.(ti~_e__QJ reehnology Assessment has agreed to Rep. Jim Santini' s request for a study of the MX missile system and basing alternatives, Santini announced. TIIE M-:VADA CONGRESSMAN anc 28 colleagues called for I.he study by OT A. an independent technical research organization of C-ongnss, in order to assess the : mpacts and cost effectiveness of the ma.uive weapons system, proposed !or the Great Basia area of Nevada and Utah. "We've had a lot of studi~ already, primarily by the Defense Department :ind its contractors ... Santini explained. "hut Congress has never before had an inrlependtont technical assessment that it ,an use to make an enlightened decision on this expensive and for Nevada momentous system." TIIE OTA STAFF proposed to gather and present the facts necessary for an understanding of I.he nsks, costs and benefits of each MX 1 and the strategic consequences of each. In terms of cost they will not only study dollar costs but will consider environmental impact. economic dislocati-:;n and changes in lifestyle of people in the effected regfon, Santini said. The staff plan calls ior the study to be ready for congressional briefing in January 1981 and completion of the project by April 1981. \ A similar article also appeared in: Fallon (NV) Eagle Standard PAGE 126 Sun City (AZ) News-Sun May 22, 1980 MX location study approved WASHINGTON (AP) The Congressional Offlce of Technology Assessment has approved a study of plans on where to locate the proposed ~X missile system, Rep. Morris Udall, D-Anz. says. Udall, who requested the study, said that "four weeks ago the Pentagon was telling us that the 'race-track' system was final ( and) couldn't be improved on. The study will examine both land and sea basing possibilities. A preliminary report is due by January with a final report next April, Udall said. Similar articles also appeared in: Sierra Vista (AZ) Herald Dispatch Bisbee (AZ) Daily Review PAGE 127 The effects of-nuclear war. by tile OfBc:a of -Tedmolou Aslesmlea.t (US Coa,:rea); :_ Croom Helm, pp 151, The two maiD-eoildusioa.s-o ems work are. first.. that the eifects that ClmliOC be. -calca-1,ated in advance &NI at,-leut as important as those 'that -cm and, secm:ad. the coadftioa of the san:ivors woald wonea for some time:after tbe -war was oftl'; per.haps fOC' JDaD7 :,ears. The indirect" ded:s ,al stam.aon, dfaeae 11ml injmies without .medical facilities to treat tbem. md tbe wreclcmc ot the e0DDOIDY may well be comiderably -more drna,mr in tbe Joa, term." thm the immediate-effects al b~ ere and radia:tioa. The US Ofiice of Tedmoloa Ass e umci (al'A) rudle$ 1tleee 00Gdasioas fter aaalysin, four kinds -of nuclear attacks Oil both the -Uulted States ad thi, Soviet. Uaioa--,. attacks against a siligle c:itr(Detroit ad. Lemand). ones apimt oil :rdDeries (with. lO missiles used),~ 'attacks qajmt--all ICE!Oi(-u,s. The New Scientist April 3, 1980 (two warheads pet" silo), and attadc.s against the full-range of military targ~ and cities. There are about 60 000 nuclear warheads in today's arsenals, with an explosive power equivalent to more than 16 000 millioa tons of TNT (equal to 11 4 million Hiroshima bombs). It is then hardly sur prising to read that a war in which all, or a sipi.licant portion, of these were used would Ja1l perhaps 250 million in the US and USSR combined, kill millions more elsewhere and reduce the survivors to ... medieval ecouomy". By far the most telling part of The E{fect3 of N-w::l.ea,-Wa,is a m:tioaal aCCOUDt by Nan Randall of the effects OD Charlottesville. Viriwa, which initially escaped unharmed althouih much of America had bee devastated by a massive nudear attack. Soon, we are told, "residents bunted ,a.me as the last food stocks disappeared, but the fall-out had killed most of the anirnals that were in tbe open". '"The first of the deaths from radia tioa occurred 10 days after the attack a.ad. the numbt=r steadily. The terminally ill were llOt cared for by the hospitals-there were too maay. The city set aside seTenll locatioas oa tbe outskirts of towu for mas.s graves ... And so oa., and so on. Fict:ioaalised accounts certainly bring home the quality of the catastropbe much more aedibly than such technical details as fall-out ellipse$ oil maps of Detroit a.ad Lemngrad.. Seaator Kennedy said ""ben releasing the report {it wa.s requested by the Sellate Com. mittee OD F-orei,D Relat:ioas) 'This new OTA report reminds us that nuclear wv is a questioa of the posslole destruc:tioll of our ver, sodety, and of the world as we kilow itn. That we need reminding after all that bas been said and written in the past 30 years about lluclear-wupon effects is a sobering tbougti:t; it shows how the mind recoils from the effort to take ill the details of a nudear calamity. Nev, Scientist readers will find a no better or mOt"e c::oodse reminder than The E/Tecti of Nuclear Wa1'. Fru.k :B&nu.bJ" PAGE 128 Deseret News (Salt Lake, UT) April 28, 1980 Air pollution concern now moving indoors WASHINGTON (AP) -Concerns about air pollu tion are moving indoors. Indoor air quality, generally ignored as environ mentalists have urged crackdowns on pollution outside, is becom ing a new concem as consumers insulate, homes .. Home insulation, weatherstripping and caulking, all officially urged as ways to save energy, keep heated air from escaping outside. However, they also trap pollutants inside. "Indoor levels of sever al important air pollut ants can be as high as or: higher than outdoor levels," a report by the Congressional Office of I :rechnology Assessment concluded. Officials say they are concerned about these and other influences on indoor air: Formaldehyde, a gas that can be emitted from some home insula tion, and is used in plywood, particle board, foam-padded furniture and numerous other household products. A preliminary report of one test indicated it caused cancer in laboratory rats. In addition, numer ous homeowners have complained abour odors from urea formaldehyde foam insulation. which has been banned in Massachusetts. Carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide, gases produced by heat ing and cooking sources. In low concentrations, carbon monoxide causes headaches and dizziness while nitrogen dioxide increases the risk of re spiratory problems. Radon, used in con crete block and cinder block. This is a potential cause of lung cancer. Safety officials say they are not sure yet how much danger there is from the substances in household air. But they say the national energy program's emphasis on insulating homes could make it worse before studies can show how big the problem is. "It is crucial that the (energy) conservation ef. fort be closely coupled with a program to ex pand our understanding of indoor air quality," the congressional study said. In the average home. there is a complete ex change of air about every hour. But energy resear chers using special con struction methods and heavy insulation have built experim-ental homes that lower this to 20 percent fresh air per hour. Five federal agencies have formed a commit tee to study indoor air and have drafted a re search plan on how to identify indoor air pollut ants and decide what to do about them. Similar articles also appeared in: State Times (Baton Rouge, LA) Chicago Sun Times Oakland (CA) Tribune Birmingham (AL) News Casa Grande (AZ) Dispatch Odessa (TX) American Santa Cruz (CA) Sentinel Tampa (FL) Times Miami Herald PAGE 129 Information Systems News (Manhasset, ~'Y) May 5, 1980 OTA To Study Impact On v.:s. Of U.N. Satellite Conference The Office of Techno)oo Assess ment in Washington says it is about to J:;:iinch a study designed to assess the impact of the United Nations' 1979 1Norici Administrative Radio Confer ence on U.S. telecommunications. The project, to be headed by OT A staffer Ray Crowell, will also review how the United States prepares for W ARC and other such conferences. W ARC, held in Geneva last fall, was the forum for a growing international conflict over the allocation of available frequency band width and the dwin dling number of satellite orbital slots. WARC is the international organiza tion which assigns the use of the broadcasting spectrum. U.S. satellite positions were challenged in Geneva by developing nations hoping to assure themselves future use of the spectrum and by com petitive interests from Western Europe, Canada and Japan. The request for the OTA study came from the Senate Committee on Com merce, Science and Transportation, and the House Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce. According to OTA staffer Steven Doyle, Congress requested the study to cover three major areas of concern: The impact oftheresult..s of the last W ARC Conference on industrial and government~! institutions in the United States. The practices, procedures and mechanisms of the federal government to prepare for and participate in such conferences. An examination of the International Telecommunications Unionthe U .N. body responsible for W ARCand consideration of changes in the organization the United States may find desirable. The project is aimed at helping the government prepare for regional satellite conferences in 1982 and 1983 and another worldwide WARC in 1984. Congress has appropriated $300,000 for the project, which is expected to take 18 months to complete. OTA is a congressionally funded study gToup. PAGE 130 OTA.Expects 'No Big Surprises' in EFT Study By Jake Kirchner CW Wdshington Bureau WASHINGTON, D.C. Uectronic funds transfer (EFT) "Is not going to take over the world, and it's not going to disappear," accord ing to a congressional re sean:her heading a study of EFT for the Offo:LilLT~,h~ nology !\Ssessm~nt (OT A). Preliminary findings in the EFT "asse!>sment" suggest tlldt hy 1995 automated teller machines could number as few as 25,000 or as many as 50,000, according to senior analyst Zal Sha veil. The expansion rate depends on a number of factors, Shave! told a recent EFT Association conference here. Among them: a good supply of energy that will continue to encourage greater population spread; an improved regulatory cli mate on the stale level; a con tinued drop in the price of ----------------------Computerworld (Newton, Massachusetts) Apri 1 l/1, 1980 technology; and economic conditions that provide banks with a strong source of EFT developqlent dollars. Orderly Evolution The EFT study, originally scheduled for completion last December, will not be finished until sometime this summer, according to Shavell, who re ported March 25 on the work of the three contractors doing research for OT A in this field. From their findings so far, which may or may not be in~ eluded in OT A's final report, Shavell said "there are not go ing to be any big surprises" in EFT develop[l)ent. "It's sim ply going to evolve from what exists today in some orderly manner." The study is aimed at discov ering what has happened in the industry since the National Commission on EFT finished its work three years ago and predicting EFT growth over the next 15 years (CW, July 9). Operating on "very limited resources" the thre,~ re search contracts totaled only //) $29,600 OT A has tackled the problem by directing its contractors to prepare studies in three areas. A paper on privacy and equity will treat the ability of consumers to know where their EFT records are and how they can gain access to them. It will also address controls over dissemination of those records and their potential secondary uses. In terms of "equity," OT A wants information on how EFT might improve the distribution of various financial services to indentifiable groups of consumers and the potential of EFT to curtail, ei ther through competition or managem~nl choices, existing services, the most obvious ex ample being paper checks. A study of EFT security b being conducted to predict fu ture EFT system reliability and recoverability. An investigation of "EFT futures" is directed at predict ing the size and shape of the EFT industry ovt!r the next 15 years given possible political, economic and demographic '1 trends in U.S. society. Shavell hopes to have the three studies in hand soon and have a report for Congress by August. "If nothing else, tlie funding is running out," he said, and the work will have to be completed by mid-summer. Information Sought Under its Congressional mandate, OT A does not recommend any course of action to Congress or even suggest what possible developments would be most beneficial to industry and t'onsumers. Of A's job is to lay out as completely as possible the ef. feels on society of all possible developments in a particular field of technology so Con gress can make final decisions on what laws, if any, should bepa~edtoaddress4uHl~ns raised by technology. Because the EFT assessment is still in the preliminary stage, he urged those with relevant information to contact him as soon as possible. He can be reached at OT A, Washington, D.C. 20510. PAGE 131 St. Louis Globe-Democrat May 21, 1980 AdvanCed SST could be developed in 30 years By DAVID YOUNG Globe-Democrat-Chicago Tribune News Service WASHINGTON -An advanced supersonic transport plane could be developed sometime between 1990 and 2010. but its development costs will be huge. according to a recent study for Congress released by the U.S. Office of T~hnolggy As!SJD!ll.l, The study considers what combination of government and private funding would be feasible, and questions whether the public would want tax dollars used. Congress in 1971 canceled funding for the development of a U.S. supersonic transport by Boeing Co. because of its high coat. However, OTA officials estimate in their latest report that if an advanced supersonic transport is developed, as many as 400 could be sold to airlines in the next 30 years. That represents $50 billion in aircraft in 1979 dollars. THE AGENCY warned, on the other hand, that the continuing increase in the price of fuel could make such a plane uneconomical to operate in the future, and airport noise restrictions on supersonic planes may also prevent its development. The research and development costs alone on such a plane, which under some plans would be capable of a speed of 1.600 miles an hour, would approach $2 billion in current dollars, and another $5 to f1 billion would be needed for tooling and starting production, OTAsaid. Those sums are "believed to be far beyond the resources of any one company." The report suggested that if such a plane is built, a consortium of two or more aerospace companies would be needed possibly with government support. "For most Americans, the question of pursuing research on supersonic aircraft was rendered moot by the cancellation of the previous SST program in 1971," the report said. "The inability of Concorde (the Anglo-French SST that has been an economic disaster) to become a paying proposition in terms of aircraft sales: can be expected to reinforce public attitudes that futher government support for research in this area isn't warranted." I SINCE THE cancellation, the i Federal Aviation Administration and, more recently, the National, Aeronautics and Space Administration! have funded modest research programs 1 on supersonic flight to keep America's i technology alive. The FAA spent $15 i million from 1971 to 1973, and since then i NASA has spent $i2.9 million on its l supersonic cruise research program. The research has concentrated on i propulsion systems, structares. I materials and airframes. - PAGE 132 Albuquerque (NM) Journal June 25, 1980 Supef,9olli~ transports It seems likely that the envilem of "sonic boom" will be ronmental and energy-conbrought within acceptable limsumption problems of the su-its someday. personic jet transport will. be A new report by Congress' licked eventually. Office of Technological AsThat being the case, it makes sessment argues that the Unitsense for the United States to ed States should keep its opkeep up with supersonic jet tions open to build a second technology and stand prepared generation supersonic transto cash in on the construction port. of those fast planes if the mar-The report says that the ket opens up. current fleet of subsonic jet The British and French ha-transports probably will need ven't had notable success with to be replaced in a decade or their Concorde and that seem-so and that it may be desirable ingly has bolstered the deci-to replace them with supersonsion of nearly a decade ago ic planes. The report estimates against developing a U.S. that this country could capture supersonic transport. one-third of the world market But since then, progress has for the aircraft, which would been made in developing mean sales worth $SO billion quieter and more fuel-efficient (in 1979 dollars). engines that could power In order to be ready for planes with triple the.capacity that, the OTA says Congress of the 100-seat Concorde. It must increase funds for re also is expected that the probsearch on supersonic planes. PAGE 133 -----THE PlA.IN DEALER, FRIDAY, MAY 2, 1980 SuCcessful SST is foreseen if fuel problems are licked WASHINGTON (AP) -Despite the commercial failure of today's supersonic airliners, an advanced high-speed jet could be economically soccessful in the future if it overcame major fuel and environmental questions, ac cording to a congressional study. The report released recently by the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) said a second generation advanced supersonic transport (AST} that flies faster and carries more passengers than present models could account for $50 bil-lion in sales through the year 2010. An American AST could take about onethird of the total sales of long distance aircraft within the nm 30 years,' the report said. But producmg such a plane would require overcoming many obstacles, including the future price and availability of fuel, it added. An ASr would have fuel consumption rates at least 1.5 to 2 times greater per seat-mile than equivalently sized subsonic transports, and would be more sensitive to fuel price increases than a subsonic aircraft, the study said. The OT A, an agency that advises Congress on technical matters and suggests policy op tions, did the ~dy for the House Science and Technology CcmzrJ:tee. It did not make recom mendations about .v-hether the AST should or should not be built. But given the probability d an e ~,Hi11cmic importance of sustaining U.S. aviation lel:ldership, "it appears that it would be in our national interest to keep our options open in the super sonic field," the agency said. A proposed American supersonic airliner was canceled in 1971 because of economic and environmental considerations. Since then, feder. al agencies have spent about $10 million a year on supersonic research. The two foreign supersonic airliner models flying today are based upon 1960s technology and do not compete well economically with sub sonic planes. Both. consume relatively large amounts of fuel and are noisy and small, seat ing slightly more than 100 passengers. The Anglo-French Concorde, while techni cally a success, is considered an economic disaster. Only 16 Concordes were built after the two governments spent more than ,3.25 billion to develop them, and only the state-owned airlines. fly them. The Russian TU-144 airliner, similar in size and configuration to the arrow-shaped Concorde, reportedly has technical problems and has seen only limited service within the Soviet Union. The congressional study envisions an American supersonic airliner that carries .about 300 passengers at speeds better than 1,600 miles per hour, more than twice the speed of sound. Such a craft would cost up to $10 billion to develop and produce, not counting initial re search. The agency said it might be best handled as a multinational venture with other countries. PAGE 134 Report extolls virtues of new SST WHEN CONGRESS voted to kill federal funds for a U.S. passenger supersonic transport plane, they : left the commercial field open for the Anglo-French Concorde. That opportunity didn't amount to much, as the Concorde ran into problems of excess noise, fuel inefficiency, and environmental opposition. But a second-generation SST would undoubtedly avoid the high-cost, low-return difficulties that Conc-0rde faced; it could even capture as much as 33% of the global long-distance market. Such is the conclusion of a report on second-generation SSTs by the Congressional Office of Technol!)gj=x-ssessinent (OT A). Impi"ovectinatenals hanaling, imaginative new wing design, quieter engine technology, and research designed to reduce the pressures of sonic booms could produce a vastly more efficient SST, the report argued. A fast-flying plane of the next generation should have a capacity of about 300 passengers-three times as much as Concorde-and a range that would allow it to take on the trans-Pacific routes that are too extended for Concorde. The most efficient second-generation SST, the panel found, would have a fuel consumption per passenger mile little more than half that of Concorde. The consumption would be double that of subsonic planes, but because about 400 advanced SSTs could take on the transport job that now requires 850 subsonics, the worldwide consumption of aviation fuel resulting from a large fleet of advanced SSTs would only exceed by 5 to 10% consumption by an industry without the second-generation planes. The snag, the OT A report noted, is that the U.S. is spending too little on research to maintain hope for an advanced SST. In response, Tom Harkin (D-IA), head of the subcommittee that requested the report, said that he plans to propose an annual appropriation of $100 million, to last for five years, for work on such a plane concept. = c_-;;-C r-:' f(:~ '1'~ 3,, __ (Jv;$fe,''\ ~.-;' .. ~,:~a~.~-~ ... -~'~ --'~ -~::-.J ._..__. --...~ ...,..,~ "Best self-ooush,ng Nax ever tned." Industrial Research Development June 1980 PAGE 135 Electronic Buyers ~ews (Great ~eek, :TY) :fay ::! 1980 Congress Funding U.S.-Japan QC Probe By Paul Hyman .. r PAGEoNfil director at the OTA NEW YORK -Saddled Wlth a con-The EL<\.J has oeen conducting a cem over the "declining U.S. competivigorous campaign aimed at quashing ti veness i~ high:technology areas," a rising protectionlst sentiment in ConCrnational Trade Commission issued a report in January as a preli!'!'.i!1o.-: assessment of whether there are grounds for believing the Japanse are engaging in unfair trade prac tices. In September. the CommercEc Dept.'s Industry & Trade Aam1rus tration put out a summary of available data on trade and R&D investments in semiconductors. And the Commerce Dept.'s Bureau of Standards has a draft of a reo1)rt on the relation of Government policy to tec:u:ological development. t0 be released soon. PAGE 136 Electronic Buyers News (cont.) Bills To Result? "I don't know if we're all duplicat ing efforts," noted Mr. Merrill, "but we're trying to avoid it." He added it's conceivable some legislation will result from the OT A study, either on capital formation or the impact of taxes on innovation and productivity. 1 "The electronics industry has 1 focused for a long time primarily on trade practices-Japanese discrimi nation against domestic invest ment. trade barriers and possible dumping," he said. "It is our suspi cion that whatever problems exist in the industry are more fundamental, having to do with the rate of capital formation and investment. and with the level and orientation of Federal R&D support." As a result, he noted that his com _mittee reported on Bill S1250 last week which, if pasaed by the Senate and House, would authorize Feder ally and industry-funded R&D cen ters for the elect?onics and other industries. "It would authorize several million dollars in grants to universities and nonprofit research institutions able to attract matching contribu- tions from industry to set up 'generic 1 technology centers'," Mr. Merrill explained. "We expect these would go a long way toward building U.S. competitiveness if used properly." PAGE 137 OCEAN SCIENCE NEWS -2-May 5, 1980 A l\'EW TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM FROM