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a person believes it can depends not upon technology
but upon faith. In these days, it has to be a very
strong faith. By our lights, growth may diminish,
cease, or actually decline; but need such a decline be
heralded disaster?
We are more conscious than most of resource
exhaustion, but need that bring collapse, at least
insofar as structural materials are concerned? If metals
production were to cease immediately, those already
mined and in use would remain available. It is our
view that metals are more likely to run out gradually,
thereby exerting a gradually increasing pressure on
rates of growth.
Whether the same would hold true for mineral
fuels is uncertain. If they were to run out, production
could be severely restricted, but new energy sources
such as nuclear fuels or sunlight might forestall
disaster, especially if growth were already restricted
by metals scarcity. Metals scarcity is a problem but
it is a challenging problem whose solution we cannot
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foresee. Growth may proceed more rapidly for a time,
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Another consideration, needing mention but
beyond the scope of this thesis, is population growth.
In the light of possible restrictions of output,
population pressures could become more pressing--re-enter
Maithus. But population might also decline for reasons
entirely separate from economic considerations. The
passing of thirty years could produce a re-emergence of
concern for declining populations.
Many misconceptions have arisen concerning what
people think Malthus did or did not say. Contrary to