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production of the kind the United States has known has
depended upon the acquisition of new land and new
deposits, and might continue to depend upon such
acquisition in the future.
With a constant level of technology, acquisition
costs of new metal would tend to increase inexorably.
Fortunately technological advances in the fields of
geology and mining tend to offset increasing costs
resulting from decreasing yields. Changes in the
technology of ore concentration (refining) also tend to
offset increases in the cost of new metals production.
In fact, the rate of technical change may be so great
that costs of production of new metal might actually
3
decline for a time.
Temporarily declining costs of new metals
production do not negate the pressure toward increasing
materials costs, however. Increased costs caused by
the move toward more marginal deposits may be offset
for a time by technological change, especially if metal
deposits are initially abundant; but if the costs of
producing refined metals are not to increase, then
technology must continue to advance at a pace sufficient
to offset cost increases originating in the move to
marginal deposits.
3~
Strong evidence indicates that raw materials
production costs in real terms may have declined in the
United States during the past hundred years. Cf.
Barnett and Morse, Scarcity and Growth.